Patronato v Almagro Prediction & Expected Goals (30 Aug) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultPatronato to win ✗64% · @1.67

Double chancePatronato or draw ✗86% · @1.15

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · @1.55

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓69% · fair 1.45

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗21% · fair 4.82

Patronato vs Almagro: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Sunday 30 August the Primera Nacional brings Patronato against Almagro. Kick-off: 19:30 WAT. In the table, Patronato are 16th, in the drop zone, on 38 points after 36 matches; Almagro are 15th (lower half) with 42.

Current form

Patronato, last 5: WDLDD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Atlanta, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.

Almagro, last 5: DLDLD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Colegiales, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Patronato 1.5 xG, Almagro 0.5 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 69%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Patronato 64%, draw 22%, Almagro 14%.
Lower-risk option: Patronato or draw (86%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: NG (55%) at 1.55.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Patronato to win (64%, odds 1.67 – longer than our fair 1.57, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Patronato 1–0 Almagro. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Patronato64%fair 1.57 · @1.67

Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.25

Almagro14%fair 7.08 · @5.50

1.96Expected goals

1.47Patronato xG

0.49Almagro xG

45%Both score

31%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–021%

2–015%

0–014%

1–110%

3–08%

2–17%

From our goals model: Patronato 1.5 – 0.5 Almagro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Patronato to win ✗	64%	1.57	1.67 ▲
Double chance	Patronato or draw ✗	86%	1.16	1.15
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✓	55%	1.82	1.55
Draw no bet	Patronato (draw no bet) ✗	82%	1.22	–
Asian handicap	Patronato -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	62%	1.62	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	58%	1.72	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	69%	1.45	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	86%	1.16	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	95%	1.05	–
First team to score	Patronato to score first ✗	65%	1.55	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	48%	2.07	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Patronato / FT Patronato ✗	37%	2.67	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0 ✗	21%	4.82	–

Patronato – last 6

WDLDDL

26 Aug	vs Atlanta	2–0	W
22 Aug	vs Gimnasia Jujuy	3–3	D
15 Aug	@ Colon Santa Fe	0–3	L
9 Aug	@ Colegiales	2–2	D
1 Aug	vs Quilmes	3–3	D
26 Jul	@ Midland	0–1	L

1.7Scored / game

2.0Conceded / game

50%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Almagro – last 6

DLDLDW

22 Aug	vs Colegiales	0–0	D
15 Aug	@ Deportivo Moron	0–2	L
9 Aug	@ Quilmes	1–1	D
5 Aug	vs Gimnasia Y Tiro	0–2	L
1 Aug	vs Midland	1–1	D
28 Jul	@ Atlanta	3–1	W

0.8Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

50%Both scored

17%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tristan Suarez	36	16	16	4	+18	64
2	Atlanta	36	19	5	12	+8	62
3	Temperley	36	16	13	7	+12	61
4	Gimnasia Jujuy	36	16	10	10	+4	58
5	Midland	36	15	10	11	+14	55
6	Deportivo Maipu	36	14	10	12	+9	52
7	Colegiales	36	14	10	12	+4	52
8	Gimnasia Y Tiro	36	14	10	12	+2	52
9	San Martin S.J.	36	13	12	11	+6	51
10	San Martin Tucuman	36	11	14	11	+2	47
11	Atletico DE Rafaela	36	12	11	13	-6	47
12	Agropecuario	36	12	10	14	-8	46
13	Quilmes	36	12	9	15	+3	45
14	Chacarita Juniors	36	12	6	18	-6	42
15	Almagro	36	11	9	16	-11	42
16	Patronato	36	7	17	12	-6	38
17	Nueva Chicago	36	9	10	17	-11	37
18	Club Atlético Güemes	36	6	9	21	-34	27

Team

Pts

+18

+12

+14

-6

-8

-6

-11

-6

-11

-34

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Patronato vs Almagro?

Our pick is Patronato to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.

Who will win Patronato vs Almagro?

On our numbers Patronato have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Almagro 14%.

How many goals will there be in Patronato vs Almagro?

We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Patronato vs Almagro?

Our predicted score is Patronato 1–0 Almagro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.

When is Patronato vs Almagro?

Patronato vs Almagro (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Patronato v Almagro: numbers & prediction