Value bet: Patronato to win @ 3.25 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNueva Chicago to win ✗40% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.18
Nueva Chicago vs Patronato: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 21 September the Primera Nacional brings Nueva Chicago against Patronato at Estadio Nueva Chicago. Kick-off: 23:00 WAT. In the table, Nueva Chicago are 17th, in the drop zone, on 37 points after 36 matches; Patronato are 16th (in the drop zone) with 38. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Nueva Chicago, last 5: LWLLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Colegiales, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.2 goals a game.
Patronato, last 5: DDLWD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Temperley, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Patronato, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.5 for Nueva Chicago.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nueva Chicago 0.9 xG, Patronato 0.8 xG – a total near 1.8. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 74%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nueva Chicago 40%, draw 26%, Patronato 34%.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Patronato to win @3.25 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 34%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (51%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nueva Chicago 0–0 Patronato. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nueva Chicago40%fair 2.48 · @2.40
Draw26%fair 3.84 · @2.75
Patronato34%fair 2.97 · @3.25
1.76Expected goals
0.94Nueva Chicago xG
0.82Patronato xG
49%Both score
26%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–017%
1–016%
0–114%
1–113%
2–08%
2–16%
From our goals model: Nueva Chicago 0.9 – 0.8 Patronato expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nueva Chicago to win✗
40%
2.48
2.40
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.40
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
1.62
Draw no bet
Nueva Chicago (draw no bet)
55%
1.83
–
Asian handicap
Patronato +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
97%
1.03
–
First team to score
Nueva Chicago to score first✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
53%
1.88
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
25%
4.00
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.18
–
Recent results
Nueva Chicago – last 6
LWLLLL
12 Sep
@ Colegiales
0–1
L
7 Sep
vs Quilmes
1–0
W
29 Aug
@ Midland
0–2
L
22 Aug
vs Atlanta
0–1
L
17 Aug
@ All Boys
0–1
L
9 Aug
@ Gimnasia Y Tiro
0–2
L
0.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Patronato – last 6
DDLWDL
13 Sep
vs Temperley
0–0
D
6 Sep
@ Deportivo Maipu
0–0
D
30 Aug
vs Almagro
0–1
L
26 Aug
vs Atlanta
2–0
W
22 Aug
vs Gimnasia Jujuy
3–3
D
15 Aug
@ Colon Santa Fe
0–3
L
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nueva Chicago and Patronato.
What is the prediction for Nueva Chicago vs Patronato?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Nueva Chicago vs Patronato?
On our numbers Nueva Chicago have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Patronato 34%.
How many goals will there be in Nueva Chicago vs Patronato?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 26% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nueva Chicago vs Patronato?
Our predicted score is Nueva Chicago 0–0 Patronato, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Nueva Chicago vs Patronato?
Nueva Chicago vs Patronato (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Monday 21 September 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nueva Chicago.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
