Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 54% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultGuastatoya to win ✗58% · @1.77
Double chanceGuastatoya or draw ✓82% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.84
Guastatoya vs Malacateco: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Guastatoya welcome Malacateco for a Liga Nacional fixture on Sunday 15 February (03:00 WAT). In the table, Guastatoya are 7th, lower half, on 31 points after 22 matches; Malacateco are 10th (in the drop zone) with 22.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Guastatoya 1.7 xG, Malacateco 0.7 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Guastatoya 58%, draw 25%, Malacateco 18%.
Lower-risk option: Guastatoya or draw (82%) at 1.13.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Guastatoya 1–0 Malacateco. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Guastatoya58%fair 1.73 · @1.77
Draw25%fair 4.06 · @3.20
Malacateco18%fair 5.71 · @4.50
2.40Expected goals
1.68Guastatoya xG
0.72Malacateco xG
54%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–07%
From our goals model: Guastatoya 1.7 – 0.7 Malacateco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Guastatoya
Malacateco
Attack vs Liga Nacional average
+2%
-25%
Goals conceded vs average
-9%
-2%
Our expected goals here
1.68
0.63
Our own ratings from every Liga Nacional result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Guastatoya to win✗
58%
1.73
1.77
Double chance
Guastatoya or draw✓
82%
1.21
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Guastatoya (draw no bet)
77%
1.30
–
Asian handicap
Guastatoya -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Guastatoya to score first✓
64%
1.57
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Guastatoya / FT Guastatoya✗
37%
2.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.84
–
Recent results
Guastatoya
No recent results on record.
Malacateco
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Guastatoya and Malacateco.
What is the prediction for Guastatoya vs Malacateco?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Guastatoya vs Malacateco?
On our numbers Guastatoya have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Malacateco 18%.
How many goals will there be in Guastatoya vs Malacateco?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Guastatoya vs Malacateco?
Our predicted score is Guastatoya 1–0 Malacateco, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Guastatoya vs Malacateco?
Guastatoya vs Malacateco (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
