Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 52% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMictlán to win ✓58% · @1.62
Double chanceMictlán or draw ✓82% · @1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 10.85
Mictlán vs Marquense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Mictlán welcome Marquense to Estadio La Asuncion for a Liga Nacional fixture on Sunday 22 February (22:00 WAT). In the table, Mictlán are 9th, lower half, on 27 points after 22 matches; Marquense are 8th (lower half) with 30. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mictlán 1.6 xG, Marquense 0.8 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 52%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mictlán 58%, draw 25%, Marquense 18%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mictlán 1–0 Marquense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mictlán58%fair 1.73 · @1.62
Draw25%fair 4.08 · @3.35
Marquense18%fair 5.67 · @5.60
2.37Expected goals
1.58Mictlán xG
0.79Marquense xG
52%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–012%
1–112%
0–09%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Mictlán 1.6 – 0.8 Marquense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Mictlán
Marquense
Attack vs Liga Nacional average
+3%
-23%
Goals conceded vs average
+23%
-5%
Our expected goals here
1.63
0.87
Our own ratings from every Liga Nacional result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mictlán to win✓
58%
1.73
1.62
Double chance
Mictlán or draw✓
82%
1.21
1.08
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Mictlán (draw no bet)✓
77%
1.30
–
Asian handicap
Marquense +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Mictlán to score first✓
61%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mictlán / FT Mictlán✓
34%
2.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
10.85
–
Recent results
Mictlán – last 2
LD
20 Feb
@ Comunicaciones
1–2
L
15 Feb
vs Antigua GFC
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Marquense – last 2
WL
20 Feb
vs Mixco
2–1
W
16 Feb
@ Xelajú
2–4
L
2.0Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mictlán and Marquense.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Mictlán vs Marquense?
On our numbers Mictlán have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Marquense 18%.
How many goals will there be in Mictlán vs Marquense?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mictlán vs Marquense?
Our predicted score is Mictlán 1–0 Marquense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Mictlán vs Marquense?
Mictlán vs Marquense (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio La Asuncion.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
