Marquense vs Aurora: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Marquense welcome Aurora to Estadio Marquesa de la Ensenada for a Liga Nacional fixture on Thursday 26 February (04:00 WAT). In the table, Marquense are 8th, lower half, on 30 points after 22 matches; Aurora are 11th (in the drop zone) with 20.
Current form
Marquense, last 3: LWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Mictlán, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Aurora, last 3: WLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Comunicaciones, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Aurora, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.0 for Marquense.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Marquense 1.5 xG, Aurora 0.9 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Marquense 52%, draw 27%, Aurora 21%.
Lower-risk option: Marquense or draw (79%) at 1.14.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Marquense 1–0 Aurora. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Marquense52%fair 1.93 · @1.77
Draw27%fair 3.67 · @3.30
Aurora21%fair 4.79 · @4.33
2.44Expected goals
1.51Marquense xG
0.94Aurora xG
56%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–112%
2–010%
2–19%
0–09%
0–18%
From our goals model: Marquense 1.5 – 0.9 Aurora expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Marquense
Aurora
Attack vs Liga Nacional average
-23%
+8%
Goals conceded vs average
-5%
+6%
Our expected goals here
1.36
0.94
Our own ratings from every Liga Nacional result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Marquense to win✗
52%
1.93
1.77
Double chance
Marquense or draw✓
79%
1.26
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
1.85
Draw no bet
Marquense (draw no bet)
71%
1.40
–
Asian handicap
Aurora +1 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.44
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Marquense to score first✗
56%
1.78
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Marquense / FT Marquense✗
30%
3.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.83
–
Recent results
Marquense – last 3
LWL
22 Feb
@ Mictlán
1–2
L
20 Feb
vs Mixco
2–1
W
16 Feb
@ Xelajú
2–4
L
1.7Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Aurora – last 3
WLW
22 Feb
vs Comunicaciones
2–0
W
19 Feb
@ Antigua GFC
0–2
L
15 Feb
vs Cobán Imperial
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Marquense and Aurora.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Marquense vs Aurora?
On our numbers Marquense have a 52% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Aurora 21%.
How many goals will there be in Marquense vs Aurora?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Marquense vs Aurora?
Our predicted score is Marquense 1–0 Aurora, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Marquense vs Aurora?
Marquense vs Aurora (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Thursday 26 February 2026 at 04:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Marquesa de la Ensenada.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
