Value bet: Excursionistas to win @ 1.85 – our chance 63% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultExcursionistas to win ✓63% · @1.85
Double chanceExcursionistas or draw ✓86% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.45
Excursionistas vs Dock Sud: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Excursionistas welcome Dock Sud to Excursionistas Stadium for a Primera B Metropolitana fixture on Saturday 21 February (00:00 WAT). In the table, Excursionistas are 1st, leading the league, on 81 points after 42 matches; Dock Sud are 18th (lower half) with 47. There are 34 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Excursionistas 2.1 xG, Dock Sud 0.7 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Excursionistas 63%, draw 23%, Dock Sud 14%.
Lower-risk option: Excursionistas or draw (86%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Excursionistas to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (70%, odds 1.48 – longer than our fair 1.43, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Excursionistas 2–0 Dock Sud. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Excursionistas63%fair 1.60 · @1.85
Draw23%fair 4.36 · @3.10
Dock Sud14%fair 6.92 · @4.20
2.82Expected goals
2.07Excursionistas xG
0.75Dock Sud xG
54%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–013%
1–012%
2–110%
1–19%
3–09%
3–17%
From our goals model: Excursionistas 2.1 – 0.7 Dock Sud expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Excursionistas
Dock Sud
Attack vs Primera B Metropolitana average
+67%
-5%
Goals conceded vs average
-9%
+42%
Our expected goals here
2.77
0.74
Our own ratings from every Primera B Metropolitana result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Excursionistas to win✓
63%
1.60
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Excursionistas or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.87
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Excursionistas (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Excursionistas -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.17
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
First team to score
Excursionistas to score first✓
69%
1.45
–
Half-time result
Excursionistas ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Excursionistas / FT Excursionistas✗
44%
2.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.45
–
Recent results
Excursionistas – last 1
W
16 Feb
@ Deportivo Merlo
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Dock Sud – last 1
D
15 Feb
vs Arsenal Sarandi
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Excursionistas and Dock Sud.
What is the prediction for Excursionistas vs Dock Sud?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Excursionistas vs Dock Sud?
On our numbers Excursionistas have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Dock Sud 14%.
How many goals will there be in Excursionistas vs Dock Sud?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Excursionistas vs Dock Sud?
Our predicted score is Excursionistas 2–0 Dock Sud, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Excursionistas vs Dock Sud?
Excursionistas vs Dock Sud (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Excursionistas Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
