Dock Sud 36%Draw 29%Deportivo Merlo 34%Expected goals 1.14 – 1.03
66%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.36 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.36Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 53% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultDock Sud to win ✗36% · @2.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✗71% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.25
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 13.05
Dock Sud vs Deportivo Merlo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Dock Sud welcome Deportivo Merlo to Estadio de los Inmigrantes for a Primera B Metropolitana fixture on Thursday 16 April (19:30 WAT). In the table, Dock Sud are 18th, lower half, on 47 points after 42 matches; Deportivo Merlo are 15th (lower half) with 49. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Dock Sud, last 5: LDWLD Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Sportivo Italiano, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Deportivo Merlo, last 5: LWDWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Sportivo Italiano, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Deportivo Merlo, collecting 1.4 points per game to 0.8 for Dock Sud.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Dock Sud 1.1 xG, Deportivo Merlo 1.0 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 66%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Dock Sud 36%, draw 29%, Deportivo Merlo 34%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.25.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (66%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Dock Sud 1–1 Deportivo Merlo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Dock Sud36%fair 2.74 · @2.62
Draw29%fair 3.39 · @2.75
Deportivo Merlo34%fair 2.93 · @2.80
2.18Expected goals
1.14Dock Sud xG
1.03Deportivo Merlo xG
53%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–013%
0–112%
0–011%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Dock Sud 1.1 – 1.0 Deportivo Merlo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Dock Sud
Deportivo Merlo
Attack vs Primera B Metropolitana average
-5%
-17%
Goals conceded vs average
+42%
+12%
Our expected goals here
1.24
1.02
Our own ratings from every Primera B Metropolitana result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Dock Sud to win✗
36%
2.74
2.62
Double chance
Either team to win✗
71%
1.42
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
2.25 ▲
Draw no bet
Dock Sud (draw no bet)
52%
1.93
–
Asian handicap
Deportivo Merlo +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.65
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
First team to score
Dock Sud to score first✓
47%
2.15
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Dock Sud / FT Dock Sud✗
22%
4.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
13.05
–
Recent results
Dock Sud – last 6
LDWLDL
5 Apr
vs Sportivo Italiano
1–3
L
29 Mar
@ San Martín Burzaco
1–1
D
23 Mar
vs Villa San Carlos
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Liniers
2–3
L
4 Mar
@ UAI Urquiza
0–0
D
27 Feb
vs Villa Dalmine
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Deportivo Merlo – last 5
LWDWL
29 Mar
@ Sportivo Italiano
1–2
L
5 Mar
@ Real Pilar
3–1
W
28 Feb
vs UAI Urquiza
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ Villa Dalmine
1–0
W
16 Feb
vs Excursionistas
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Dock Sud and Deportivo Merlo.
What is the prediction for Dock Sud vs Deportivo Merlo?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Dock Sud vs Deportivo Merlo?
On our numbers Dock Sud have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Deportivo Merlo 34%.
How many goals will there be in Dock Sud vs Deportivo Merlo?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Dock Sud vs Deportivo Merlo?
Our predicted score is Dock Sud 1–1 Deportivo Merlo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Dock Sud vs Deportivo Merlo?
Dock Sud vs Deportivo Merlo (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Thursday 16 April 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de los Inmigrantes.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
