Sportivo Italiano 53%Draw 28%Argentino de Merlo 19%Expected goals 1.34 – 0.67
67%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.38 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.38Odds
Picks by market
ResultSportivo Italiano to win ✗53% · @1.95
Double chanceSportivo Italiano or draw ✗81% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · @1.48
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓67% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.58
Sportivo Italiano vs Argentino de Merlo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 31 May the Primera B Metropolitana brings Sportivo Italiano against Argentino de Merlo at Republica de Italia Stadium. Kick-off: 18:30 WAT. In the table, Sportivo Italiano are 3rd, among the top four, on 72 points after 42 matches; Argentino de Merlo are 13th (lower half) with 50. There are 22 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Sportivo Italiano, last 5: LDLWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to San Martín Burzaco, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Argentino de Merlo, last 5: LDLWL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Deportivo Armenio, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sportivo Italiano 1.3 xG, Argentino de Merlo 0.7 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 67%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sportivo Italiano 53%, draw 28%, Argentino de Merlo 19%.
Lower-risk option: Sportivo Italiano or draw (81%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: NG (54%) at 1.48.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (67%, odds 1.38). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sportivo Italiano 1–0 Argentino de Merlo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sportivo Italiano53%fair 1.90 · @1.95
Draw28%fair 3.56 · @2.95
Argentino de Merlo19%fair 5.16 · @3.90
2.01Expected goals
1.34Sportivo Italiano xG
0.67Argentino de Merlo xG
46%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–018%
0–013%
2–012%
1–112%
0–19%
2–18%
From our goals model: Sportivo Italiano 1.3 – 0.7 Argentino de Merlo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Sportivo Italiano
Argentino de Merlo
Attack vs Primera B Metropolitana average
+14%
+2%
Goals conceded vs average
-15%
+16%
Our expected goals here
1.54
0.74
Our own ratings from every Primera B Metropolitana result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sportivo Italiano to win✗
53%
1.90
1.95
Double chance
Sportivo Italiano or draw✗
81%
1.24
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
1.48
Draw no bet
Sportivo Italiano (draw no bet)✗
73%
1.37
–
Asian handicap
Argentino de Merlo +1 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
1.62
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.06
–
First team to score
Sportivo Italiano to score first✗
58%
1.73
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sportivo Italiano / FT Sportivo Italiano✗
31%
3.21
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.58
–
Recent results
Sportivo Italiano – last 6
LDLWWD
27 May
vs San Martín Burzaco
1–2
L
18 May
vs Deportivo Laferrere
1–1
D
14 Apr
@ Defensores Unidos
0–2
L
5 Apr
@ Dock Sud
3–1
W
29 Mar
vs Deportivo Merlo
2–1
W
15 Mar
vs Ituzaingó
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Argentino de Merlo – last 6
LDLWLW
26 May
@ Deportivo Armenio
0–2
L
14 Apr
vs Excursionistas
1–1
D
10 Apr
@ Arsenal Sarandi
0–3
L
3 Apr
@ Ituzaingó
1–0
W
29 Mar
vs Talleres Remedios
0–1
L
4 Mar
vs Flandria
2–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sportivo Italiano and Argentino de Merlo.
What is the prediction for Sportivo Italiano vs Argentino de Merlo?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Sportivo Italiano vs Argentino de Merlo?
On our numbers Sportivo Italiano have a 53% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Argentino de Merlo 19%.
How many goals will there be in Sportivo Italiano vs Argentino de Merlo?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sportivo Italiano vs Argentino de Merlo?
Our predicted score is Sportivo Italiano 1–0 Argentino de Merlo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Sportivo Italiano vs Argentino de Merlo?
Sportivo Italiano vs Argentino de Merlo (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Sunday 31 May 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Republica de Italia Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
