Sportivo Italiano 33%Draw 29%Excursionistas 38%Expected goals 1.05 – 1.10
66%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.36 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.36Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 51% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultExcursionistas to win ✓38% · @2.60
Double chanceEither team to win ✓71% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.25
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 13.51
Sportivo Italiano vs Excursionistas: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:30 WAT, Saturday 13 June: Sportivo Italiano v Excursionistas in the Primera B Metropolitana, played at Republica de Italia Stadium. In the table, Sportivo Italiano are 3rd, among the top four, on 72 points after 42 matches; Excursionistas are 1st (leading the league) with 81.
Current form
Sportivo Italiano, last 5: WLLDL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Arsenal Sarandi, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Excursionistas, last 5: WWDWD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over San Martín Burzaco, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Excursionistas, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.2 for Sportivo Italiano.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sportivo Italiano 1.0 xG, Excursionistas 1.1 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 66%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sportivo Italiano 33%, draw 29%, Excursionistas 38%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.25.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (66%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sportivo Italiano 1–1 Excursionistas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sportivo Italiano33%fair 2.99 · @2.80
Draw29%fair 3.49 · @2.80
Excursionistas38%fair 2.64 · @2.60
2.15Expected goals
1.05Sportivo Italiano xG
1.10Excursionistas xG
51%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–113%
1–012%
0–012%
1–27%
0–27%
From our goals model: Sportivo Italiano 1.0 – 1.1 Excursionistas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Sportivo Italiano
Excursionistas
Attack vs Primera B Metropolitana average
+14%
+67%
Goals conceded vs average
-15%
-9%
Our expected goals here
1.21
1.21
Our own ratings from every Primera B Metropolitana result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Excursionistas to win✓
38%
2.64
2.60
Double chance
Either team to win✓
71%
1.40
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
2.25 ▲
Draw no bet
Excursionistas (draw no bet)✓
53%
1.88
–
Asian handicap
Sportivo Italiano +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
1.65
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
First team to score
Excursionistas to score first✓
45%
2.21
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Excursionistas / FT Excursionistas✗
21%
4.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
13.51
–
Recent results
Sportivo Italiano – last 6
WLLDLW
6 Jun
@ Arsenal Sarandi
3–1
W
31 May
vs Argentino de Merlo
0–2
L
27 May
vs San Martín Burzaco
1–2
L
18 May
vs Deportivo Laferrere
1–1
D
14 Apr
@ Defensores Unidos
0–2
L
5 Apr
@ Dock Sud
3–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Excursionistas – last 6
WWDWDL
6 Jun
vs San Martín Burzaco
2–0
W
31 May
@ Villa San Carlos
2–0
W
27 May
@ Argentino Quilmes
2–2
D
23 May
vs Liniers
4–1
W
9 May
vs UAI Urquiza
0–0
D
18 Apr
vs Arsenal Sarandi
0–1
L
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sportivo Italiano and Excursionistas.
What is the prediction for Sportivo Italiano vs Excursionistas?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Sportivo Italiano vs Excursionistas?
On our numbers Sportivo Italiano have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Excursionistas 38%.
How many goals will there be in Sportivo Italiano vs Excursionistas?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sportivo Italiano vs Excursionistas?
Our predicted score is Sportivo Italiano 1–1 Excursionistas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Sportivo Italiano vs Excursionistas?
Sportivo Italiano vs Excursionistas (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Saturday 13 June 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Republica de Italia Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
