Arsenal Sarandi 57%Draw 27%Deportivo Merlo 17%Expected goals 1.51 – 0.62
65%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 50% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultArsenal Sarandi to win ✓57% · @1.80
Double chanceArsenal Sarandi or draw ✓83% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @2.25
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.95
Arsenal Sarandi vs Deportivo Merlo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Deportivo Merlo travel to face Arsenal Sarandi on Sunday 21 June in the Primera B Metropolitana, with Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona the venue – the ball rolls at 18:30 WAT. In the table, Arsenal Sarandi are 2nd, among the top four, on 77 points after 42 matches; Deportivo Merlo are 15th (lower half) with 49. There are 28 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Arsenal Sarandi, last 5: WLLDD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Deportivo Camioneros, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Deportivo Merlo, last 5: DLWDW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Argentino de Merlo, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Deportivo Merlo, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.3 for Arsenal Sarandi.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Arsenal Sarandi 1.5 xG, Deportivo Merlo 0.6 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Arsenal Sarandi 57%, draw 27%, Deportivo Merlo 17%.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 2.25.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 50%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (65%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Arsenal Sarandi 1–0 Deportivo Merlo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Arsenal Sarandi57%fair 1.76 · @1.80
Draw27%fair 3.75 · @2.95
Deportivo Merlo17%fair 6.05 · @4.80
2.12Expected goals
1.51Arsenal Sarandi xG
0.62Deportivo Merlo xG
50%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–018%
2–014%
0–012%
1–111%
2–18%
0–17%
From our goals model: Arsenal Sarandi 1.5 – 0.6 Deportivo Merlo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Arsenal Sarandi
Deportivo Merlo
Attack vs Primera B Metropolitana average
+16%
-17%
Goals conceded vs average
-25%
+12%
Our expected goals here
1.51
0.54
Our own ratings from every Primera B Metropolitana result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arsenal Sarandi to win✓
57%
1.76
1.80
Double chance
Arsenal Sarandi or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
2.00
2.25 ▲
Draw no bet
Arsenal Sarandi (draw no bet)✓
77%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
Deportivo Merlo +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
1.55
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
83%
1.20
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
94%
1.07
–
First team to score
Arsenal Sarandi to score first
62%
1.60
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arsenal Sarandi / FT Arsenal Sarandi✓
36%
2.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.95
–
Recent results
Arsenal Sarandi – last 6
WLLDDW
13 Jun
@ Deportivo Camioneros
2–1
W
6 Jun
vs Sportivo Italiano
1–3
L
31 May
@ San Martín Burzaco
0–2
L
26 May
@ Flandria
0–0
D
22 May
vs Villa San Carlos
2–2
D
18 Apr
@ Excursionistas
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Deportivo Merlo – last 6
DLWDWW
14 Jun
vs Argentino de Merlo
2–2
D
6 Jun
@ Talleres Remedios
0–2
L
2 Jun
vs Deportivo Laferrere
2–1
W
26 May
vs Liniers
0–0
D
22 May
@ Brown DE Adrogue
1–0
W
3 May
vs Argentino Quilmes
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arsenal Sarandi and Deportivo Merlo.
What is the prediction for Arsenal Sarandi vs Deportivo Merlo?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Arsenal Sarandi vs Deportivo Merlo?
On our numbers Arsenal Sarandi have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Deportivo Merlo 17%.
How many goals will there be in Arsenal Sarandi vs Deportivo Merlo?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal Sarandi vs Deportivo Merlo?
Our predicted score is Arsenal Sarandi 1–0 Deportivo Merlo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Arsenal Sarandi vs Deportivo Merlo?
Arsenal Sarandi vs Deportivo Merlo (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Sunday 21 June 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
