Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.50 – our chance 51% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +27%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultExcursionistas to win ✓63% · @1.60
Double chanceExcursionistas or draw ✓86% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.50
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.02
Excursionistas vs Deportivo Merlo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Deportivo Merlo travel to face Excursionistas on Saturday 27 June in the Primera B Metropolitana, with Excursionistas Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 19:00 WAT. In the table, Excursionistas are 1st, leading the league, on 81 points after 42 matches; Deportivo Merlo are 15th (lower half) with 49. There are 32 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Excursionistas, last 5: DWWWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Deportivo Camioneros, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Deportivo Merlo, last 5: LDLWD Their latest outing: 2–4 defeat to Arsenal Sarandi, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Excursionistas, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.3 for Deportivo Merlo.
Head to head
When they last met (16 Feb 2026) it ended Deportivo Merlo 1–2 Excursionistas.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Excursionistas 1.8 xG, Deportivo Merlo 0.6 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Excursionistas 63%, draw 23%, Deportivo Merlo 14%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.50.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.50 – the bookmaker implies 40%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (66%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Excursionistas 2–0 Deportivo Merlo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Excursionistas63%fair 1.60 · @1.60
Draw23%fair 4.26 · @3.20
Deportivo Merlo14%fair 7.17 · @5.75
2.46Expected goals
1.81Excursionistas xG
0.65Deportivo Merlo xG
51%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Excursionistas 1.8 – 0.6 Deportivo Merlo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Excursionistas
Deportivo Merlo
Attack vs Primera B Metropolitana average
+67%
-17%
Goals conceded vs average
-9%
+12%
Our expected goals here
2.17
0.65
Our own ratings from every Primera B Metropolitana result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Excursionistas vs Deportivo Merlo?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Excursionistas vs Deportivo Merlo?
On our numbers Excursionistas have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Deportivo Merlo 14%.
How many goals will there be in Excursionistas vs Deportivo Merlo?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Excursionistas vs Deportivo Merlo?
Our predicted score is Excursionistas 2–0 Deportivo Merlo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Excursionistas vs Deportivo Merlo?
Excursionistas vs Deportivo Merlo (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Saturday 27 June 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Excursionistas Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
