Value bet: Deportivo Merlo to win @ 3.50 – our chance 31% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultArgentino Quilmes to win ✓42% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.44
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.55
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14% · fair 7.22
Argentino Quilmes vs Deportivo Merlo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Deportivo Merlo travel to face Argentino Quilmes on Sunday 13 September in the Primera B Metropolitana, with Barranca Quilmena stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 19:00 WAT. In the table, Argentino Quilmes are 17th, lower half, on 47 points after 42 matches; Deportivo Merlo are 15th (lower half) with 49. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Argentino Quilmes, last 5: LLLLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Deportivo Camioneros, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Deportivo Merlo, last 5: DLLDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Defensores Unidos, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.2 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Head to head
When they last met (3 May 2026) it ended Deportivo Merlo 1–0 Argentino Quilmes.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Argentino Quilmes 1.2 xG, Deportivo Merlo 1.0 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 64%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Argentino Quilmes 42%, draw 27%, Deportivo Merlo 31%.
GG/NG: NG (50%) at 1.55.
Price worth noting: Deportivo Merlo to win @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 31%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (50%, odds 1.55). Most likely score in line with that pick: Argentino Quilmes 1–0 Deportivo Merlo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Argentino Quilmes42%fair 2.36 · @2.30
Draw27%fair 3.75 · @2.60
Deportivo Merlo31%fair 3.24 · @3.50
2.15Expected goals
1.19Argentino Quilmes xG
0.96Deportivo Merlo xG
50%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–111%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Argentino Quilmes 1.2 – 1.0 Deportivo Merlo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Argentino Quilmes vs Deportivo Merlo?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Argentino Quilmes vs Deportivo Merlo?
On our numbers Argentino Quilmes have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Deportivo Merlo 31%.
How many goals will there be in Argentino Quilmes vs Deportivo Merlo?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Argentino Quilmes vs Deportivo Merlo?
Our predicted score is Argentino Quilmes 1–0 Deportivo Merlo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Argentino Quilmes vs Deportivo Merlo?
Argentino Quilmes vs Deportivo Merlo (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Barranca Quilmena stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
