Excursionistas v Villa Dalmine Prediction & Expected Goals (13 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultVilla Dalmine to win ✗38% · @2.70

Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · fair 1.33

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.25

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · @1.12

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 14.62

Excursionistas vs Villa Dalmine: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Villa Dalmine travel to face Excursionistas on Sunday 13 September in the Primera B Metropolitana, with Excursionistas Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 00:00 WAT. In the table, Excursionistas are 1st, leading the league, on 81 points after 42 matches; Villa Dalmine are 6th (upper half) with 68. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Excursionistas, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Ituzaingó, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.

Villa Dalmine, last 5: LDDWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Arsenal Sarandi, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Excursionistas, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for Villa Dalmine.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Excursionistas 1.0 xG, Villa Dalmine 1.0 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 67%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Excursionistas 37%, draw 25%, Villa Dalmine 38%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.25.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 52%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (67%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Excursionistas 0–1 Villa Dalmine. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Excursionistas37%fair 2.73 · @2.70

Draw25%fair 3.99 · @2.80

Villa Dalmine38%fair 2.61 · @2.70

1.99Expected goals

0.98Excursionistas xG

1.01Villa Dalmine xG

52%Both score

33%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–114%

0–014%

1–114%

1–013%

0–27%

1–27%

From our goals model: Excursionistas 1.0 – 1.0 Villa Dalmine expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Villa Dalmine to win ✗	38%	2.61	2.70
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	75%	1.33	–
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	52%	1.94	2.25 ▲
Draw no bet	Villa Dalmine (draw no bet) ✗	51%	1.96	–
Asian handicap	Excursionistas +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	65%	1.55	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	59%	1.69	1.57
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	67%	1.49	1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	84%	1.18	1.12
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	93%	1.08	1.03
First team to score	Villa Dalmine to score first ✗	44%	2.28	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	50%	2.00	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Draw / FT Draw ✗	22%	4.56	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	7%	14.62	–

Excursionistas – last 6

WLWWWL

8 Sep	vs Ituzaingó	2–1	W
29 Aug	@ Arsenal Sarandi	0–3	L
26 Aug	vs Argentino de Merlo	2–0	W
22 Aug	@ Talleres Remedios	2–1	W
15 Aug	vs Deportivo Laferrere	5–3	W
8 Aug	@ Brown DE Adrogue	0–1	L

1.8Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

50%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Villa Dalmine – last 6

LDDWWL

5 Sep	vs Arsenal Sarandi	0–1	L
30 Aug	@ Argentino de Merlo	0–0	D
25 Aug	vs Talleres Remedios	0–0	D
21 Aug	@ Deportivo Laferrere	2–0	W
15 Aug	vs Brown DE Adrogue	1–0	W
8 Aug	@ Deportivo Armenio	0–1	L

0.5Scored / game

0.3Conceded / game

0%Both scored

0%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Excursionistas	42	24	9	9	+36	81
2	Arsenal Sarandi	42	21	14	7	+28	77
3	Sportivo Italiano	42	20	12	10	+15	72
4	Talleres Remedios	42	20	11	11	+19	71
5	Deportivo Camioneros	42	19	13	10	+15	70
6	Villa Dalmine	42	18	14	10	+12	68
7	Real Pilar	42	18	12	12	+4	66
8	Deportivo Armenio	42	17	12	13	+3	63
9	Comunicaciones	42	15	15	12	+5	60
10	Deportivo Laferrere	42	15	14	13	-2	59
11	Villa San Carlos	42	12	15	15	-5	51
12	San Martín Burzaco	42	12	15	15	-6	51
13	Argentino de Merlo	42	13	11	18	-6	50
14	Flandria	42	13	10	19	-10	49
15	Deportivo Merlo	42	11	16	15	-15	49
16	Liniers	42	11	15	16	-7	48
17	Argentino Quilmes	42	10	17	15	-8	47
18	Dock Sud	42	11	14	17	-9	47
19	Defensores Unidos	42	10	16	16	-6	46
20	Brown DE Adrogue	42	10	16	16	-12	46
21	UAI Urquiza	42	8	21	13	-10	45
22	Ituzaingó	42	1	14	27	-41	17

Team

Pts

+36

+28

+15

+19

+15

+12

-2

-5

-6

-6

-10

-15

-7

-8

-9

-6

-12

-10

-41

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Excursionistas vs Villa Dalmine?

Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.

Who will win Excursionistas vs Villa Dalmine?

On our numbers Excursionistas have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Villa Dalmine 38%.

How many goals will there be in Excursionistas vs Villa Dalmine?

We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Excursionistas vs Villa Dalmine?

Our predicted score is Excursionistas 0–1 Villa Dalmine, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.

When is Excursionistas vs Villa Dalmine?

Excursionistas vs Villa Dalmine (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Excursionistas Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Excursionistas v Villa Dalmine: numbers & prediction