Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓59% · fair 1.71
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓73% · fair 1.37
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.93
Mercedes vs El Porvenir: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:00 WAT, Saturday 18 July: Mercedes v El Porvenir in the Primera C. In the table, Mercedes are 5th, upper half, on 47 points after 32 matches; El Porvenir are 8th (lower half) with 40.
Current form
Mercedes, last 5: DWWLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Victoriano Arenas, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
El Porvenir, last 5: DDDLD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Lujan, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mercedes 1.0 xG, El Porvenir 0.8 xG – a total near 1.8. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 73% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mercedes 40%, draw 31%, El Porvenir 30%.
Lower-risk option: Mercedes or draw (70%) at 1.30.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Mercedes or draw (70%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mercedes 1–0 El Porvenir. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mercedes40%fair 2.52 · @2.62
Draw31%fair 3.25 · @2.62
El Porvenir30%fair 3.39 · @2.95
1.81Expected goals
1.03Mercedes xG
0.78El Porvenir xG
41%Both score
27%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
0–016%
1–113%
0–113%
2–09%
2–17%
From our goals model: Mercedes 1.0 – 0.8 El Porvenir expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Mercedes
El Porvenir
Attack vs Primera C average
+1%
+1%
Goals conceded vs average
-2%
+10%
Our expected goals here
1.20
0.82
Our own ratings from every Primera C result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mercedes to win✓
40%
2.52
2.62
Double chance
Mercedes or draw✓
70%
1.42
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
59%
1.71
–
Draw no bet
Mercedes (draw no bet)✓
57%
1.74
–
Asian handicap
El Porvenir +1 (Asian handicap)✗
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
96%
1.04
–
First team to score
Mercedes to score first✓
48%
2.10
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
52%
1.91
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
24%
4.14
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.93
–
Recent results
Mercedes – last 6
DWWLDD
12 Jul
vs Victoriano Arenas
1–1
D
6 Jul
@ Centro Español
3–0
W
27 Jun
vs JJ Urquiza
5–0
W
14 Jun
@ Lugano
0–1
L
6 Jun
vs Deportivo Paraguayo
0–0
D
30 May
@ Puerto Nuevo
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
El Porvenir – last 6
DDDLDW
11 Jul
vs Lujan
0–0
D
5 Jul
@ General Lamadrid
1–1
D
27 Jun
vs Leones de Rosario
0–0
D
13 Jun
vs Atletico Atlas
0–1
L
7 Jun
@ Canuelas
0–0
D
30 May
vs Deportivo Muñiz
2–1
W
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mercedes and El Porvenir.
What is the prediction for Mercedes vs El Porvenir?
Our pick is Mercedes or draw with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Mercedes vs El Porvenir?
On our numbers Mercedes have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 31% and El Porvenir 30%.
How many goals will there be in Mercedes vs El Porvenir?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 27% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mercedes vs El Porvenir?
Our predicted score is Mercedes 1–0 El Porvenir, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Mercedes vs El Porvenir?
Mercedes vs El Porvenir (Primera C) kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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