Lugano 46%Draw 25%Estrella Del Sur 29%Expected goals 1.16 – 0.84
67%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.40Odds
Picks by market
ResultLugano to win ✗46% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · @1.12
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.37
Lugano vs Estrella Del Sur: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Estrella Del Sur travel to face Lugano on Sunday 20 September in the Primera C – the ball rolls at 19:00 WAT. In the table, Lugano are 7th, upper half, on 46 points after 32 matches; Estrella Del Sur are 3rd (among the top four) with 48. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Lugano, last 5: DWDWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Leones de Rosario, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Estrella Del Sur, last 5: DLDLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Yupanqui, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lugano 1.2 xG, Estrella Del Sur 0.8 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 67%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lugano 46%, draw 25%, Estrella Del Sur 29%.
GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.50.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (67%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lugano 1–0 Estrella Del Sur. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lugano46%fair 2.18 · @2.05
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @2.80
Estrella Del Sur29%fair 3.41 · @3.60
2.00Expected goals
1.16Lugano xG
0.84Estrella Del Sur xG
47%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
0–014%
1–113%
0–111%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Lugano 1.2 – 0.8 Estrella Del Sur expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lugano to win✗
46%
2.18
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
1.50
Draw no bet
Lugano (draw no bet)
61%
1.64
–
Asian handicap
Estrella Del Sur +1 (Asian handicap)✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.71
1.62
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.18
1.12
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
1.03
First team to score
Lugano to score first✗
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lugano / FT Lugano✗
25%
4.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.37
–
Recent results
Lugano – last 6
DWDWLD
12 Sep
vs Leones de Rosario
0–0
D
6 Sep
@ Puerto Nuevo
1–0
W
31 Aug
vs Berazategui
1–1
D
22 Aug
@ Leandro N. Alem
1–0
W
16 Aug
vs Lujan
1–2
L
9 Aug
vs Victoriano Arenas
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Estrella Del Sur – last 6
DLDLWW
12 Sep
vs Yupanqui
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Berazategui
0–2
L
30 Aug
vs Victoriano Arenas
1–1
D
24 Aug
@ Centro Español
0–2
L
15 Aug
@ Canuelas
2–1
W
8 Aug
vs JJ Urquiza
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lugano and Estrella Del Sur.
What is the prediction for Lugano vs Estrella Del Sur?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Lugano vs Estrella Del Sur?
On our numbers Lugano have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Estrella Del Sur 29%.
How many goals will there be in Lugano vs Estrella Del Sur?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lugano vs Estrella Del Sur?
Our predicted score is Lugano 1–0 Estrella Del Sur, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Lugano vs Estrella Del Sur?
Lugano vs Estrella Del Sur (Primera C) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
