Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Mercedes to win @ 1.80 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMercedes to win ✗61% · @1.80
Double chanceMercedes or draw ✓88% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗62% · fair 1.60
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓67% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗21% · fair 4.86
Deportivo Paraguayo vs Mercedes: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:00 WAT, Monday 5 October: Deportivo Paraguayo v Mercedes in the Primera C. In the table, Deportivo Paraguayo are 12th, in the drop zone, on 32 points after 32 matches; Mercedes are 5th (upper half) with 47. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Deportivo Paraguayo, last 5: DWLWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Lugano, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Mercedes, last 5: WWDLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Puerto Nuevo, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Head to head
When they last met (6 Jun 2026) it ended Mercedes 0–0 Deportivo Paraguayo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Deportivo Paraguayo 0.5 xG, Mercedes 1.5 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 67% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Deportivo Paraguayo 12%, draw 27%, Mercedes 61%.
Lower-risk option: Mercedes or draw (88%) at 1.20.
Price worth noting: Mercedes to win @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Mercedes or draw (88%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.14, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Deportivo Paraguayo 0–1 Mercedes. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Deportivo Paraguayo12%fair 8.14 · @4.75
Draw27%fair 3.71 · @2.80
Mercedes61%fair 1.65 · @1.80
1.96Expected goals
0.50Deportivo Paraguayo xG
1.46Mercedes xG
38%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–121%
0–215%
0–014%
1–110%
1–28%
0–37%
From our goals model: Deportivo Paraguayo 0.5 – 1.5 Mercedes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Paraguayo vs Mercedes?
Our pick is Mercedes or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Deportivo Paraguayo vs Mercedes?
On our numbers Deportivo Paraguayo have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Mercedes 61%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Paraguayo vs Mercedes?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 38% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Paraguayo vs Mercedes?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Paraguayo 0–1 Mercedes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Paraguayo vs Mercedes?
Deportivo Paraguayo vs Mercedes (Primera C) kicks off on Monday 5 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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