Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
2
Value bet: Nacional SP to win @ 3.30 – our chance 33% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAEA to win ✗43% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗82% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.96
AEA vs Nacional SP: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:00 WAT, Thursday 19 March: AEA v Nacional SP in the Paulista A4.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give AEA 1.2 xG, Nacional SP 0.9 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 63%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – AEA 43%, draw 24%, Nacional SP 33%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Nacional SP to win @3.30 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (63%, odds 1.45). Most likely score in line with that pick: AEA 1–1 Nacional SP. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
AEA43%fair 2.31 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.00
Nacional SP33%fair 3.06 · @3.30
2.10Expected goals
1.15AEA xG
0.95Nacional SP xG
52%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–112%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: AEA 1.2 – 0.9 Nacional SP expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AEA to win✗
43%
2.31
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
2.00
Draw no bet
AEA (draw no bet)✗
57%
1.76
–
Asian handicap
Nacional SP +1 (Asian handicap)✓
78%
1.29
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
63%
1.58
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
82%
1.23
1.17
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
94%
1.07
–
First team to score
AEA to score first
48%
2.08
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AEA / FT AEA✗
23%
4.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.96
–
Recent results
AEA – last 2
LL
5 Mar
@ Inter de Bebedouro
0–4
L
25 Feb
@ Joseense
0–2
L
0.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Nacional SP – last 2
LL
4 Mar
vs Taquaritinga
0–4
L
25 Feb
vs EC Lemense
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AEA and Nacional SP.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win AEA vs Nacional SP?
On our numbers AEA have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Nacional SP 33%.
How many goals will there be in AEA vs Nacional SP?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AEA vs Nacional SP?
Our predicted score is AEA 1–1 Nacional SP, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is AEA vs Nacional SP?
AEA vs Nacional SP (Paulista A4) kicks off on Thursday 19 March 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Paulista A4 · Brazil
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