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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Penapolense v Barretos: numbers & prediction

Paulista A4 · Brazil

Penapolense

DWDLD
1–1
FT

Barretos

LW
Penapolense 62%Draw 24%Barretos 15% Expected goals 1.40 – 0.49
68%
Betarazi pick

Under 2.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.47 · bookmaker 1.42 · Won ✓

7/10Rating
1.42Odds
1

Value bet: Penapolense to win @ 1.95 – our chance 62% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultPenapolense to win ✗62% · @1.95
Double chancePenapolense or draw ✓85% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · @1.53
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68% · @1.42
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗21% · fair 4.74

Penapolense vs Barretos: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Wednesday 25 March the Paulista A4 brings Penapolense against Barretos. Kick-off: 23:30 WAT.

Current form

Penapolense, last 5: DWDLD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Grêmio Sãocarlense, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Penapolense 1.4 xG, Barretos 0.5 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 68%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Penapolense 62%, draw 24%, Barretos 15%.
  • Lower-risk option: Penapolense or draw (85%) at 1.18.
  • GG/NG: NG (54%) at 1.53.
  • Price worth noting: Penapolense to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 62%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (68%, odds 1.42). Most likely score in line with that pick: Penapolense 1–0 Barretos. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Penapolense62%fair 1.62 · @1.95
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @3.10
Barretos15%fair 6.78 · @3.75
1.89Expected goals
1.40Penapolense xG
0.49Barretos xG
46%Both score
32%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–021%
0–015%
2–015%
1–110%
0–17%
2–17%

From our goals model: Penapolense 1.4 – 0.5 Barretos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPenapolense to win ✗62%1.621.95 ▲
Double chancePenapolense or draw ✓85%1.171.18
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✗54%1.851.53
Draw no betPenapolense (draw no bet)81%1.24–
Asian handicapBarretos +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✓69%1.44–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓58%1.711.55
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68%1.471.42
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓88%1.14–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓96%1.05–
First team to scorePenapolense to score first63%1.59–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓49%2.02–
Half-time / full-timeHT Penapolense / FT Penapolense ✗36%2.79–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗21%4.74–

Recent results

Penapolense – last 6

DWDLDL
21 Mar@ Grêmio Sãocarlense0–0D
18 Marvs Jabaquara3–2W
7 Marvs Inter de Bebedouro0–0D
4 Mar@ EC Lemense0–1L
28 Febvs Vocem0–0D
25 Feb@ Taquaritinga0–3L
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Barretos – last 2

LW
19 Marvs Inter de Bebedouro0–1L
25 Feb@ Jabaquara1–0W
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Penapolense and Barretos.

Penapolense vs Barretos head-to-head page →

More Paulista A4 predictions

FT Colorado Caieiras0 São Caetano4 129%3.10X23%3.10248%2.25 0.9–1.2xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 64%@1.44 ✓
FT Nacional SP0 ECUS0 129%3.20X24%2.95247%2.25 0.8–1.1xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 68%@1.42 ✓
FT Taquaritinga2 Tanabi1 141%2.25X24%2.95234%3.20 1.0–0.9xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 65%@1.50 ✗
FT EC Lemense0 Jabaquara0 166%1.35X22%3.95212%9.20 1.7–0.5xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 78%@1.25 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Penapolense vs Barretos?

Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.

Who will win Penapolense vs Barretos?

On our numbers Penapolense have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Barretos 15%.

How many goals will there be in Penapolense vs Barretos?

We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Penapolense vs Barretos?

Our predicted score is Penapolense 1–0 Barretos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.

When is Penapolense vs Barretos?

Penapolense vs Barretos (Paulista A4) kicks off on Wednesday 25 March 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.