V-varen Nagasaki v Shimizu S-pulse Prediction & Expected Goals (5 Apr) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultV-varen Nagasaki to win ✗40% · @2.65

Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.25

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.70

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.30

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.54

V-varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-pulse: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Sunday 5 April the J1 League brings V-varen Nagasaki against Shimizu S-pulse at Peace Stadium. Kick-off: 05:00 WAT. In the table, V-varen Nagasaki are 9th, in the drop zone, on 21 points after 18 matches; Shimizu S-pulse are 7th (lower half) with 24. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

V-varen Nagasaki, last 5: WLWLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Fagiano Okayama, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Shimizu S-pulse, last 4: LWWD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Vissel Kobe, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give V-varen Nagasaki 1.4 xG, Shimizu S-pulse 1.1 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 57%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – V-varen Nagasaki 40%, draw 26%, Shimizu S-pulse 34%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.70.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: V-varen Nagasaki 1–1 Shimizu S-pulse. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

V-varen Nagasaki40%fair 2.52 · @2.65

Draw26%fair 3.79 · @3.35

Shimizu S-pulse34%fair 2.94 · @2.55

2.51Expected goals

1.36V-varen Nagasaki xG

1.14Shimizu S-pulse xG

57%Both score

47%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%

1–011%

0–19%

2–19%

0–08%

2–08%

From our goals model: V-varen Nagasaki 1.4 – 1.1 Shimizu S-pulse expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	V-varen Nagasaki to win ✗	40%	2.52	2.65 ▲
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	74%	1.36	1.25
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	57%	1.76	1.70
Draw no bet	V-varen Nagasaki (draw no bet) ✗	54%	1.86	–
Asian handicap	Shimizu S-pulse +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	75%	1.34	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	72%	1.39	1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	53%	1.89	1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	74%	1.35	1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	87%	1.15	1.10
First team to score	V-varen Nagasaki to score first ✗	50%	2.00	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	44%	2.27	–
Half-time / full-time	HT V-varen Nagasaki / FT V-varen Nagasaki ✗	24%	4.10	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	11.54	–

V-varen Nagasaki – last 6

WLWLWW

21 Mar	@ Fagiano Okayama	1–0	W
18 Mar	vs Kyoto Sanga	1–2	L
15 Mar	vs Avispa Fukuoka	1–0	W
8 Mar	@ Gamba Osaka	2–3	L
28 Feb	vs Cerezo Osaka	1–0	W
21 Feb	@ Nagoya Grampus	3–1	W

1.5Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Shimizu S-pulse – last 4

LWWD

1 Apr	@ Vissel Kobe	0–2	L
22 Mar	vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima	3–1	W
21 Feb	vs Vissel Kobe	1–0	W
14 Feb	vs Kyoto Sanga	1–1	D

1.3Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

50%Both scored

25%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Vissel Kobe	18	11	7	+4	35
2	Cerezo Osaka	18	11	7	+9	31
3	Nagoya Grampus	18	10	8	+2	31
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	18	10	8	+8	30
5	Gamba Osaka	18	10	8	+6	28
6	Fagiano Okayama	18	8	10	-3	26
7	Shimizu S-pulse	18	8	10	-2	24
8	Kyoto Sanga	18	8	10	-6	23
9	V-varen Nagasaki	18	7	11	-8	21
10	Avispa Fukuoka	18	7	11	-10	21

Team

Pts

-3

-2

-6

-8

-10

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for V-varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-pulse?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.

Who will win V-varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-pulse?

On our numbers V-varen Nagasaki have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Shimizu S-pulse 34%.

How many goals will there be in V-varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-pulse?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for V-varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-pulse?

Our predicted score is V-varen Nagasaki 1–1 Shimizu S-pulse, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is V-varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-pulse?

V-varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-pulse (J1 League) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 05:00 (West Africa Time) at Peace Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

V-varen Nagasaki v Shimizu S-pulse: numbers & prediction