Club Sp. San Lorenzo 17%Draw 25%Nacional Asuncion 58%Expected goals 0.72 – 1.73
83%
Betarazi pick
Nacional Asuncion or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.22
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 53% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultNacional Asuncion to win58% · @1.86
Double chanceNacional Asuncion or draw83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score53% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals78% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 10.77
Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Nacional Asuncion travel to face Club Sp. San Lorenzo on Sunday 22 March in the Division Profesional Apertura, with Estadio Gunther Vogel the venue – the ball rolls at 22:30 WAT.
Current form
Club Sp. San Lorenzo, last 5: DDLLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with 2 de Mayo, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.6 goals a game.
Nacional Asuncion, last 5: LDDDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Libertad Asuncion, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Nacional Asuncion, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.6 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0.7 xG, Nacional Asuncion 1.7 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Club Sp. San Lorenzo 17%, draw 25%, Nacional Asuncion 58%.
Lower-risk option: Nacional Asuncion or draw (83%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Nacional Asuncion or draw (83%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0–1 Nacional Asuncion. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Club Sp. San Lorenzo17%fair 5.96 · @4.10
Draw25%fair 3.98 · @3.25
Nacional Asuncion58%fair 1.72 · @1.86
2.45Expected goals
0.72Club Sp. San Lorenzo xG
1.73Nacional Asuncion xG
53%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–115%
0–213%
1–111%
1–29%
0–09%
0–38%
From our goals model: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0.7 – 1.7 Nacional Asuncion expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nacional Asuncion to win
58%
1.72
1.86 ▲
Double chance
Nacional Asuncion or draw
83%
1.20
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
53%
1.90
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Nacional Asuncion (draw no bet)
78%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
Nacional Asuncion -0.5 (Asian handicap)
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
67%
1.48
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
58%
1.72
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
78%
1.28
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Nacional Asuncion to score first
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Nacional Asuncion ahead at half-time
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nacional Asuncion / FT Nacional Asuncion
39%
2.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
9%
10.77
–
Recent results
Club Sp. San Lorenzo – last 5
DDLLD
17 Mar
vs 2 de Mayo
1–1
D
13 Mar
@ Sportivo Luqueno
1–1
D
3 Mar
vs Libertad Asuncion
0–7
L
26 Feb
@ Rubio NU
0–2
L
19 Feb
vs Sportivo Trinidense
1–1
D
0.6Scored / game
2.4Conceded / game
60%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Nacional Asuncion – last 5
LDDDW
19 Mar
@ Libertad Asuncion
1–2
L
9 Mar
@ Sportivo Trinidense
1–1
D
27 Feb
@ Deportivo Recoleta
2–2
D
20 Feb
vs Sportivo Ameliano
1–1
D
16 Feb
@ Cerro Porteno
2–0
W
1.4Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
80%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Club Sp. San Lorenzo and Nacional Asuncion.
What is the prediction for Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion?
Our pick is Nacional Asuncion or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion?
On our numbers Club Sp. San Lorenzo have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Nacional Asuncion 58%.
How many goals will there be in Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion?
Our predicted score is Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0–1 Nacional Asuncion, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion?
Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Gunther Vogel.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Division Profesional Apertura · Paraguay · Estadio Gunther Vogel
Libertad Asuncion2
Cerro Porteno3