Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.85 – our chance 58% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCerro Porteno to win ✓50% · @1.88
Double chanceCerro Porteno or draw ✓75% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.96
Sportivo Luqueno vs Cerro Porteno: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Sportivo Luqueno welcome Cerro Porteno to Estadio Luis Alberto Salinas Tanasio for a Division Profesional Apertura fixture on Wednesday 1 April (00:30 WAT).
Current form
Sportivo Luqueno, last 5: LLLDL Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Nacional Asuncion, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Cerro Porteno, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Club Sp. San Lorenzo, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Cerro Porteno, collecting 2.5 points per game to 0.2 for Sportivo Luqueno.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sportivo Luqueno 1.0 xG, Cerro Porteno 1.5 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sportivo Luqueno 25%, draw 25%, Cerro Porteno 50%.
Lower-risk option: Cerro Porteno or draw (75%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sportivo Luqueno 0–1 Cerro Porteno. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sportivo Luqueno25%fair 4.02 · @3.90
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @3.30
Cerro Porteno50%fair 2.01 · @1.88
2.46Expected goals
1.00Sportivo Luqueno xG
1.46Cerro Porteno xG
58%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
1–112%
0–29%
1–29%
0–09%
1–09%
From our goals model: Sportivo Luqueno 1.0 – 1.5 Cerro Porteno expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cerro Porteno to win✓
50%
2.01
1.88
Double chance
Cerro Porteno or draw✓
75%
1.33
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.74
1.85 ▲
Draw no bet
Cerro Porteno (draw no bet)✓
67%
1.50
–
Asian handicap
Sportivo Luqueno +1 (Asian handicap)
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
90%
1.12
–
First team to score
Cerro Porteno to score first
54%
1.84
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cerro Porteno / FT Cerro Porteno✓
28%
3.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.96
–
Recent results
Sportivo Luqueno – last 6
LLLDLL
27 Mar
@ Nacional Asuncion
2–3
L
23 Mar
vs 2 de Mayo
0–2
L
18 Mar
@ Olimpia
0–1
L
13 Mar
vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Libertad Asuncion
0–1
L
2 Mar
vs Rubio NU
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Cerro Porteno – last 6
WWLWWW
29 Mar
vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo
2–0
W
22 Mar
@ Libertad Asuncion
3–2
W
18 Mar
@ Rubio NU
0–2
L
15 Mar
vs Sportivo Trinidense
2–1
W
2 Mar
vs Deportivo Recoleta
2–0
W
25 Feb
@ Sportivo Ameliano
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sportivo Luqueno and Cerro Porteno.
What is the prediction for Sportivo Luqueno vs Cerro Porteno?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Sportivo Luqueno vs Cerro Porteno?
On our numbers Sportivo Luqueno have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Cerro Porteno 50%.
How many goals will there be in Sportivo Luqueno vs Cerro Porteno?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sportivo Luqueno vs Cerro Porteno?
Our predicted score is Sportivo Luqueno 0–1 Cerro Porteno, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Sportivo Luqueno vs Cerro Porteno?
Sportivo Luqueno vs Cerro Porteno (Division Profesional Apertura) kicks off on Wednesday 1 April 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Luis Alberto Salinas Tanasio.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Division Profesional Apertura · Paraguay · Estadio Luis Alberto Salinas Tanasio
Club Sp. San Lorenzo1
Sportivo Ameliano2
Rubio NU0
Club Guarani2