Good pick · fair odds 1.47 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
7/10Rating
1.48Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 53% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente Medellin to win ✗40% · @2.28
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.98
Independiente Medellin vs Bucaramanga: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
02:30 WAT, Sunday 1 March: Independiente Medellin v Bucaramanga in the Primera A, played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot. In the table, Independiente Medellin are 6th, upper half, on 29 points after 18 matches; Bucaramanga are 4th (among the top four) with 32. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Independiente Medellin, last 4: DDWD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Liverpool Montevideo, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Independiente Medellin 1.3 xG, Bucaramanga 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente Medellin 40%, draw 27%, Bucaramanga 33%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (68%, odds 1.48). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente Medellin 1–1 Bucaramanga. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Independiente Medellin40%fair 2.50 · @2.28
Draw27%fair 3.73 · @3.05
Bucaramanga33%fair 3.00 · @3.25
2.54Expected goals
1.31Independiente Medellin xG
1.22Bucaramanga xG
53%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Independiente Medellin 1.3 – 1.2 Bucaramanga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Independiente Medellin
Bucaramanga
Attack vs Primera A average
+16%
+27%
Goals conceded vs average
+6%
-16%
Our expected goals here
1.43
1.42
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente Medellin to win✗
40%
2.50
2.28
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
2.05 ▲
Draw no bet
Independiente Medellin (draw no bet)✗
55%
1.83
–
Asian handicap
Bucaramanga +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.05
First team to score
Independiente Medellin to score first✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente Medellin / FT Independiente Medellin✗
22%
4.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.98
–
Recent results
Independiente Medellin – last 4
DDWD
25 Feb
vs Liverpool Montevideo
0–0
D
21 Feb
@ Llaneros
2–2
D
18 Feb
@ Liverpool Montevideo
2–1
W
15 Feb
vs Deportivo Pereira
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Bucaramanga
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente Medellin and Bucaramanga.
What is the prediction for Independiente Medellin vs Bucaramanga?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Independiente Medellin vs Bucaramanga?
On our numbers Independiente Medellin have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Bucaramanga 33%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente Medellin vs Bucaramanga?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente Medellin vs Bucaramanga?
Our predicted score is Independiente Medellin 1–1 Bucaramanga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Independiente Medellin vs Bucaramanga?
Independiente Medellin vs Bucaramanga (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
