Value bet: Atletico Nacional to win @ 2.75 – our chance 39% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAtletico Nacional to win ✗39% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.52
Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Deportes Tolima welcome Atletico Nacional to Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro for a Primera A fixture on Monday 2 March (02:30 WAT). In the table, Deportes Tolima are 9th, upper half, on 26 points after 18 matches; Atletico Nacional are 1st (leading the league) with 39. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Deportes Tolima, last 3: LWW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Cucuta, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Atletico Nacional, last 4: WWLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Santa Fe, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Deportes Tolima 1.2 xG, Atletico Nacional 1.4 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Deportes Tolima 35%, draw 26%, Atletico Nacional 39%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Atletico Nacional to win @2.75 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Deportes Tolima 1–1 Atletico Nacional. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Deportes Tolima35%fair 2.89 · @2.50
Draw26%fair 3.83 · @3.25
Atletico Nacional39%fair 2.54 · @2.75
2.63Expected goals
1.23Deportes Tolima xG
1.40Atletico Nacional xG
58%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Deportes Tolima 1.2 – 1.4 Atletico Nacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
Attack vs Primera A average
+1%
+48%
Goals conceded vs average
-7%
-19%
Our expected goals here
1.20
1.46
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Nacional to win✗
39%
2.54
2.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
1.67
Draw no bet
Atletico Nacional (draw no bet)✗
53%
1.88
–
Asian handicap
Deportes Tolima +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.11
First team to score
Atletico Nacional to score first✗
49%
2.03
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Nacional / FT Atletico Nacional✗
24%
4.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.52
–
Recent results
Deportes Tolima – last 3
LWW
23 Feb
@ Cucuta
2–3
L
20 Feb
@ Deportivo Tachira FC
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs Once Caldas
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Atletico Nacional – last 4
WWLW
26 Feb
@ Santa Fe
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Alianza Valledupar
3–0
W
16 Feb
@ Deportivo Cali
0–1
L
13 Feb
vs Fortaleza FC
4–1
W
2.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportes Tolima and Atletico Nacional.
What is the prediction for Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional?
On our numbers Deportes Tolima have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Atletico Nacional 39%.
How many goals will there be in Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional?
Our predicted score is Deportes Tolima 1–1 Atletico Nacional, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional?
Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional (Primera A) kicks off on Monday 2 March 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
