Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 53% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente Medellin to win ✓68% · @1.28
Double chanceIndependiente Medellin or draw ✓89% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.25
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.53
Independiente Medellin vs Chico: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Independiente Medellin welcome Chico to Estadio Atanasio Girardot for a Primera A fixture on Thursday 23 April (00:20 WAT). In the table, Independiente Medellin are 6th, upper half, on 29 points after 18 matches; Chico are 15th (lower half) with 19.
Current form
Independiente Medellin, last 5: LLDDW Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to Flamengo, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Chico, last 5: WLWDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Deportivo Cali, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Chico, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.8 for Independiente Medellin.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Independiente Medellin 2.0 xG, Chico 0.7 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente Medellin 68%, draw 21%, Chico 11%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.25.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente Medellin 2–0 Chico. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Independiente Medellin68%fair 1.47 · @1.28
Draw21%fair 4.85 · @4.90
Chico11%fair 8.98 · @11.50
2.75Expected goals
2.03Independiente Medellin xG
0.72Chico xG
53%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–013%
1–013%
2–19%
1–19%
3–09%
3–16%
From our goals model: Independiente Medellin 2.0 – 0.7 Chico expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Independiente Medellin
Chico
Attack vs Primera A average
+16%
-30%
Goals conceded vs average
+6%
+21%
Our expected goals here
2.08
0.79
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente Medellin to win✓
68%
1.47
1.28
Double chance
Independiente Medellin or draw✓
89%
1.13
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
2.25 ▲
Draw no bet
Independiente Medellin (draw no bet)✓
86%
1.16
–
Asian handicap
Independiente Medellin -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.91
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.14
First team to score
Independiente Medellin to score first✓
69%
1.45
–
Half-time result
Independiente Medellin ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente Medellin / FT Independiente Medellin✓
44%
2.27
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.53
–
Recent results
Independiente Medellin – last 6
LLDDWL
17 Apr
@ Flamengo
1–4
L
12 Apr
vs Atletico Nacional
2–3
L
9 Apr
vs Estudiantes L.P.
1–1
D
3 Apr
@ Once Caldas
1–1
D
31 Mar
vs America de Cali
2–1
W
23 Mar
@ Santa Fe
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Chico – last 6
WLWDLW
17 Apr
vs Deportivo Cali
1–0
W
13 Apr
@ Bucaramanga
0–5
L
2 Apr
vs Deportivo Pereira
1–0
W
23 Mar
vs Deportes Tolima
1–1
D
18 Mar
@ Deportivo Pasto
0–2
L
15 Mar
vs Millonarios
2–1
W
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente Medellin and Chico.
What is the prediction for Independiente Medellin vs Chico?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Independiente Medellin vs Chico?
On our numbers Independiente Medellin have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Chico 11%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente Medellin vs Chico?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente Medellin vs Chico?
Our predicted score is Independiente Medellin 2–0 Chico, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Independiente Medellin vs Chico?
Independiente Medellin vs Chico (Primera A) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 00:20 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
