Once Caldas 59%Draw 25%Deportivo Pasto 16%Expected goals 1.75 – 0.72
84%
Betarazi pick
Once Caldas or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Once Caldas to win @ 1.84 – our chance 59% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultOnce Caldas to win ✓59% · @1.84
Double chanceOnce Caldas or draw ✓84% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.72
Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:20 WAT, Saturday 14 March: Once Caldas v Deportivo Pasto in the Primera A, played at Estadio Palogrande. In the table, Once Caldas are 8th, upper half, on 27 points after 18 matches; Deportivo Pasto are 18th (in the drop zone) with 15. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Once Caldas, last 3: WWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Deportivo Cali, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Deportivo Pasto, last 3: WDD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over America de Cali, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Once Caldas 1.7 xG, Deportivo Pasto 0.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 48%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Once Caldas 59%, draw 25%, Deportivo Pasto 16%.
Lower-risk option: Once Caldas or draw (84%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Once Caldas to win @1.84 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Once Caldas or draw (84%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Once Caldas 1–0 Deportivo Pasto. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Once Caldas59%fair 1.68 · @1.84
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @3.45
Deportivo Pasto16%fair 6.43 · @4.20
2.46Expected goals
1.75Once Caldas xG
0.72Deportivo Pasto xG
48%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Once Caldas 1.7 – 0.7 Deportivo Pasto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Once Caldas
Deportivo Pasto
Attack vs Primera A average
-5%
-29%
Goals conceded vs average
-18%
+22%
Our expected goals here
1.70
0.62
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Once Caldas to win✓
59%
1.68
1.84 ▲
Double chance
Once Caldas or draw✓
84%
1.18
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
1.83
Draw no bet
Once Caldas (draw no bet)✓
79%
1.26
–
Asian handicap
Once Caldas -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
89%
1.13
1.08
First team to score
Once Caldas to score first✓
65%
1.54
–
Half-time result
Once Caldas ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Once Caldas / FT Once Caldas✓
39%
2.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.72
–
Recent results
Once Caldas – last 3
WWL
7 Mar
@ Deportivo Cali
2–0
W
28 Feb
vs Chico
3–0
W
15 Feb
@ Deportes Tolima
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Deportivo Pasto – last 3
WDD
10 Mar
vs America de Cali
2–0
W
21 Feb
@ Deportivo Pereira
2–2
D
15 Feb
vs Internacional de Bogota
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Once Caldas and Deportivo Pasto.
What is the prediction for Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our pick is Once Caldas or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto?
On our numbers Once Caldas have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Deportivo Pasto 16%.
How many goals will there be in Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our predicted score is Once Caldas 1–0 Deportivo Pasto, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto?
Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto (Primera A) kicks off on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 00:20 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Palogrande.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
