Jaguares vs Independiente Medellin: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Jaguares welcome Independiente Medellin to Estadio Jaraguay for a Primera A fixture on Monday 16 March (00:20 WAT). In the table, Jaguares are 19th, in the drop zone, on 13 points after 18 matches; Independiente Medellin are 6th (upper half) with 29. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Jaguares, last 5: LLLLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Llaneros, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Independiente Medellin, last 5: WDLDD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Juventud, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Independiente Medellin, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.6 for Jaguares.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Jaguares 1.3 xG, Independiente Medellin 1.7 xG – a total near 2.9. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 56% and GG at 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Jaguares 28%, draw 25%, Independiente Medellin 47%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (57%, odds 1.75). Most likely score in line with that pick: Jaguares 1–1 Independiente Medellin. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Jaguares28%fair 3.62 · @3.50
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @3.20
Independiente Medellin47%fair 2.11 · @2.00
2.95Expected goals
1.26Jaguares xG
1.69Independiente Medellin xG
57%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
0–19%
0–28%
2–17%
1–07%
From our goals model: Jaguares 1.3 – 1.7 Independiente Medellin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Jaguares
Independiente Medellin
Attack vs Primera A average
-16%
+16%
Goals conceded vs average
+42%
+6%
Our expected goals here
1.31
1.75
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente Medellin to win✓
47%
2.11
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
1.75
Draw no bet
Independiente Medellin (draw no bet)✓
63%
1.58
–
Asian handicap
Jaguares +1 (Asian handicap)
67%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.77
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
–
First team to score
Independiente Medellin to score first✗
54%
1.84
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.51
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente Medellin / FT Independiente Medellin✗
29%
3.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
9%
10.60
–
Recent results
Jaguares – last 5
LLLLW
9 Mar
@ Llaneros
0–2
L
5 Mar
@ Fortaleza FC
1–2
L
1 Mar
vs Junior
0–2
L
23 Feb
@ America de Cali
0–3
L
18 Feb
vs Santa Fe
3–1
W
0.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Independiente Medellin – last 6
WDLDDW
13 Mar
vs Juventud
2–1
W
6 Mar
@ Juventud
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs Bucaramanga
1–2
L
25 Feb
vs Liverpool Montevideo
0–0
D
21 Feb
@ Llaneros
2–2
D
18 Feb
@ Liverpool Montevideo
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Jaguares and Independiente Medellin.
What is the prediction for Jaguares vs Independiente Medellin?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Jaguares vs Independiente Medellin?
On our numbers Jaguares have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Independiente Medellin 47%.
How many goals will there be in Jaguares vs Independiente Medellin?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Jaguares vs Independiente Medellin?
Our predicted score is Jaguares 1–1 Independiente Medellin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Jaguares vs Independiente Medellin?
Jaguares vs Independiente Medellin (Primera A) kicks off on Monday 16 March 2026 at 00:20 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jaraguay.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
