Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 54% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAlianza Valledupar to win ✓55% · @1.86
Double chanceAlianza Valledupar or draw ✓81% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.47
Alianza Valledupar vs Jaguares: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Jaguares travel to face Alianza Valledupar on Thursday 19 March in the Primera A, with Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau the venue – the ball rolls at 22:10 WAT. In the table, Alianza Valledupar are 16th, lower half, on 18 points after 18 matches; Jaguares are 19th (in the drop zone) with 13.
Current form
Alianza Valledupar, last 4: DDLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Santa Fe, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Jaguares, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Independiente Medellin, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alianza Valledupar 1.6 xG, Jaguares 0.9 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alianza Valledupar 55%, draw 26%, Jaguares 19%.
Lower-risk option: Alianza Valledupar or draw (81%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.15.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Alianza Valledupar or draw (81%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alianza Valledupar 1–0 Jaguares. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alianza Valledupar55%fair 1.83 · @1.86
Draw26%fair 3.87 · @3.25
Jaguares19%fair 5.14 · @4.40
2.57Expected goals
1.63Alianza Valledupar xG
0.94Jaguares xG
54%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–112%
2–010%
2–110%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Alianza Valledupar 1.6 – 0.9 Jaguares expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Alianza Valledupar
Jaguares
Attack vs Primera A average
-19%
-16%
Goals conceded vs average
+22%
+42%
Our expected goals here
1.70
1.09
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alianza Valledupar to win✓
55%
1.83
1.86
Double chance
Alianza Valledupar or draw✓
81%
1.24
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
2.15 ▲
Draw no bet
Alianza Valledupar (draw no bet)✓
74%
1.36
–
Asian handicap
Jaguares +1 (Asian handicap)
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.05
First team to score
Alianza Valledupar to score first✓
58%
1.71
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alianza Valledupar / FT Alianza Valledupar✓
33%
3.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.47
–
Recent results
Alianza Valledupar – last 4
DDLD
15 Mar
@ Santa Fe
1–1
D
6 Mar
@ Junior
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Atletico Nacional
0–3
L
17 Feb
vs Cucuta
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
75%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Jaguares – last 6
LLLLLW
16 Mar
vs Independiente Medellin
1–2
L
9 Mar
@ Llaneros
0–2
L
5 Mar
@ Fortaleza FC
1–2
L
1 Mar
vs Junior
0–2
L
23 Feb
@ America de Cali
0–3
L
18 Feb
vs Santa Fe
3–1
W
0.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alianza Valledupar and Jaguares.
What is the prediction for Alianza Valledupar vs Jaguares?
Our pick is Alianza Valledupar or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Alianza Valledupar vs Jaguares?
On our numbers Alianza Valledupar have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Jaguares 19%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Valledupar vs Jaguares?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza Valledupar vs Jaguares?
Our predicted score is Alianza Valledupar 1–0 Jaguares, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Alianza Valledupar vs Jaguares?
Alianza Valledupar vs Jaguares (Primera A) kicks off on Thursday 19 March 2026 at 22:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
