Deportes Tolima vs Fortaleza FC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:20 WAT, Friday 20 March: Deportes Tolima v Fortaleza FC in the Primera A, played at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro. In the table, Deportes Tolima are 9th, upper half, on 26 points after 18 matches; Fortaleza FC are 20th (in the drop zone) with 12. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Deportes Tolima, last 5: WLWLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over O'Higgins, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Fortaleza FC, last 5: LWDWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Junior, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Deportes Tolima, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.4 for Fortaleza FC.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Deportes Tolima 1.7 xG, Fortaleza FC 0.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Deportes Tolima 59%, draw 24%, Fortaleza FC 16%.
Lower-risk option: Deportes Tolima or draw (84%) at 1.14.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 2.10.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Deportes Tolima 1–0 Fortaleza FC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Deportes Tolima59%fair 1.68 · @1.67
Draw24%fair 4.08 · @3.50
Fortaleza FC16%fair 6.22 · @5.40
2.46Expected goals
1.70Deportes Tolima xG
0.76Fortaleza FC xG
50%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–07%
From our goals model: Deportes Tolima 1.7 – 0.8 Fortaleza FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Deportes Tolima
Fortaleza FC
Attack vs Primera A average
+1%
-19%
Goals conceded vs average
-7%
+21%
Our expected goals here
1.79
0.81
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportes Tolima to win✓
59%
1.68
1.67
Double chance
Deportes Tolima or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
1.98
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Deportes Tolima (draw no bet)✓
79%
1.27
–
Asian handicap
Fortaleza FC +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.06
First team to score
Deportes Tolima to score first✓
63%
1.58
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportes Tolima / FT Deportes Tolima✓
37%
2.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.66
–
Recent results
Deportes Tolima – last 6
WLWLWW
12 Mar
vs O'Higgins
2–0
W
5 Mar
@ O'Higgins
0–1
L
2 Mar
vs Atletico Nacional
1–0
W
23 Feb
@ Cucuta
2–3
L
20 Feb
@ Deportivo Tachira FC
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs Once Caldas
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Fortaleza FC – last 5
LWDWL
16 Mar
@ Junior
1–2
L
5 Mar
vs Jaguares
2–1
W
2 Mar
@ Deportivo Cali
1–1
D
16 Feb
vs Chico
2–1
W
13 Feb
@ Atletico Nacional
1–4
L
1.4Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
100%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportes Tolima and Fortaleza FC.
What is the prediction for Deportes Tolima vs Fortaleza FC?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Deportes Tolima vs Fortaleza FC?
On our numbers Deportes Tolima have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Fortaleza FC 16%.
How many goals will there be in Deportes Tolima vs Fortaleza FC?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportes Tolima vs Fortaleza FC?
Our predicted score is Deportes Tolima 1–0 Fortaleza FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Deportes Tolima vs Fortaleza FC?
Deportes Tolima vs Fortaleza FC (Primera A) kicks off on Friday 20 March 2026 at 00:20 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
