Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.80 – our chance 59% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSanta Fe to win ✓47% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.49
Santa Fe vs Independiente Medellin: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
22:10 WAT, Monday 23 March: Santa Fe v Independiente Medellin in the Primera A, played at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin. In the table, Santa Fe are 5th, upper half, on 31 points after 18 matches; Independiente Medellin are 6th (upper half) with 29. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Santa Fe, last 5: DDLWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Deportivo Cali, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Independiente Medellin, last 5: WWWDL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Junior, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Independiente Medellin, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.8 for Santa Fe.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Santa Fe 1.6 xG, Independiente Medellin 1.1 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Santa Fe 47%, draw 25%, Independiente Medellin 28%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (72%, odds 1.35). Most likely score in line with that pick: Santa Fe 1–1 Independiente Medellin. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Santa Fe47%fair 2.13 · @2.20
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @3.25
Independiente Medellin28%fair 3.56 · @3.25
2.68Expected goals
1.62Santa Fe xG
1.07Independiente Medellin xG
59%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–110%
2–09%
0–17%
0–07%
From our goals model: Santa Fe 1.6 – 1.1 Independiente Medellin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Santa Fe
Independiente Medellin
Attack vs Primera A average
+19%
+16%
Goals conceded vs average
-17%
+6%
Our expected goals here
1.86
1.03
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Santa Fe to win✓
47%
2.13
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Santa Fe (draw no bet)✓
63%
1.60
–
Asian handicap
Independiente Medellin +1 (Asian handicap)
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.16
1.09
First team to score
Santa Fe to score first✓
56%
1.78
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Santa Fe / FT Santa Fe✓
30%
3.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.49
–
Recent results
Santa Fe – last 6
DDLWLL
19 Mar
@ Deportivo Cali
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs Alianza Valledupar
1–1
D
26 Feb
vs Atletico Nacional
1–2
L
22 Feb
vs Junior
2–1
W
18 Feb
@ Jaguares
1–3
L
14 Feb
@ America de Cali
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Independiente Medellin – last 6
WWWDLD
20 Mar
vs Junior
2–0
W
16 Mar
@ Jaguares
2–1
W
13 Mar
vs Juventud
2–1
W
6 Mar
@ Juventud
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs Bucaramanga
1–2
L
25 Feb
vs Liverpool Montevideo
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santa Fe and Independiente Medellin.
What is the prediction for Santa Fe vs Independiente Medellin?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Santa Fe vs Independiente Medellin?
On our numbers Santa Fe have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Independiente Medellin 28%.
How many goals will there be in Santa Fe vs Independiente Medellin?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santa Fe vs Independiente Medellin?
Our predicted score is Santa Fe 1–1 Independiente Medellin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Santa Fe vs Independiente Medellin?
Santa Fe vs Independiente Medellin (Primera A) kicks off on Monday 23 March 2026 at 22:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
