Value bet: Atletico Nacional to win @ 2.24 – our chance 50% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAtletico Nacional to win ✓50% · @2.24
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓10% · fair 10.25
Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Deportivo Pasto welcome Atletico Nacional to Estadio Departamental Libertad for a Primera A fixture on Monday 30 March (00:20 WAT). In the table, Deportivo Pasto are 18th, in the drop zone, on 15 points after 18 matches; Atletico Nacional are 1st (leading the league) with 39. There are 24 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Deportivo Pasto, last 5: WWLWD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Fortaleza FC, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Atletico Nacional, last 5: WLWWL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Internacional de Bogota, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Deportivo Pasto 1.0 xG, Atletico Nacional 1.7 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Deportivo Pasto 25%, draw 25%, Atletico Nacional 50%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Atletico Nacional to win @2.24 – the bookmaker implies 45%, our ratings say 50%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Deportivo Pasto 1–1 Atletico Nacional. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Deportivo Pasto25%fair 3.98 · @3.20
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.20
Atletico Nacional50%fair 2.00 · @2.24
2.71Expected goals
0.98Deportivo Pasto xG
1.73Atletico Nacional xG
60%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–111%
1–111%
0–210%
1–210%
0–07%
1–07%
From our goals model: Deportivo Pasto 1.0 – 1.7 Atletico Nacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Deportivo Pasto
Atletico Nacional
Attack vs Primera A average
-29%
+48%
Goals conceded vs average
+22%
-19%
Our expected goals here
0.85
1.91
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Nacional to win✓
50%
2.00
2.24 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
1.75
Draw no bet
Atletico Nacional (draw no bet)✓
67%
1.50
–
Asian handicap
Deportivo Pasto +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.09
First team to score
Atletico Nacional to score first
60%
1.68
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Nacional / FT Atletico Nacional✗
34%
2.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
10%
10.25
–
Recent results
Deportivo Pasto – last 6
WWLWDD
25 Mar
@ Fortaleza FC
2–1
W
18 Mar
vs Chico
2–0
W
14 Mar
@ Once Caldas
2–4
L
10 Mar
vs America de Cali
2–0
W
21 Feb
@ Deportivo Pereira
2–2
D
15 Feb
vs Internacional de Bogota
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Atletico Nacional – last 6
WLWWLL
22 Mar
vs Internacional de Bogota
3–0
W
18 Mar
@ Millonarios
0–3
L
14 Mar
vs Llaneros
2–0
W
11 Mar
@ Junior
4–0
W
5 Mar
vs Millonarios
1–3
L
2 Mar
@ Deportes Tolima
0–1
L
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportivo Pasto and Atletico Nacional.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional?
On our numbers Deportivo Pasto have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Atletico Nacional 50%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Pasto 1–1 Atletico Nacional, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional?
Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional (Primera A) kicks off on Monday 30 March 2026 at 00:20 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Departamental Libertad.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
