Value bet: America de Cali to win @ 3.40 – our chance 34% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente Medellin to win ✓40% · @2.12
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓8% · fair 12.48
Independiente Medellin vs America de Cali: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Tuesday 31 March the Primera A brings Independiente Medellin against America de Cali at Estadio Atanasio Girardot. Kick-off: 00:10 WAT. In the table, Independiente Medellin are 6th, upper half, on 29 points after 18 matches; America de Cali are 2nd (among the top four) with 36.
Current form
Independiente Medellin, last 5: LWWWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Santa Fe, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
America de Cali, last 5: DWLWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Llaneros, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Independiente Medellin 1.2 xG, America de Cali 1.2 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente Medellin 40%, draw 27%, America de Cali 34%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: America de Cali to win @3.40 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 34%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente Medellin 1–1 America de Cali. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Independiente Medellin40%fair 2.51 · @2.12
Draw27%fair 3.77 · @3.30
America de Cali34%fair 2.98 · @3.40
2.43Expected goals
1.23Independiente Medellin xG
1.20America de Cali xG
53%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–111%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Independiente Medellin 1.2 – 1.2 America de Cali expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Independiente Medellin
America de Cali
Attack vs Primera A average
+16%
+14%
Goals conceded vs average
+6%
-32%
Our expected goals here
1.17
1.28
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente Medellin to win✓
40%
2.51
2.12
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.36
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
1.85
Draw no bet
Independiente Medellin (draw no bet)✓
54%
1.84
–
Asian handicap
America de Cali +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
1.08
First team to score
Independiente Medellin to score first✗
46%
2.16
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente Medellin / FT Independiente Medellin✗
21%
4.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
8%
12.48
–
Recent results
Independiente Medellin – last 6
LWWWDL
23 Mar
@ Santa Fe
1–2
L
20 Mar
vs Junior
2–0
W
16 Mar
@ Jaguares
2–1
W
13 Mar
vs Juventud
2–1
W
6 Mar
@ Juventud
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs Bucaramanga
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
America de Cali – last 6
DWLWWL
26 Mar
vs Llaneros
0–0
D
20 Mar
@ Águilas Doradas
1–0
W
10 Mar
@ Deportivo Pasto
0–2
L
6 Mar
vs Bucaramanga
2–1
W
23 Feb
vs Jaguares
3–0
W
19 Feb
@ Junior
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente Medellin and America de Cali.
What is the prediction for Independiente Medellin vs America de Cali?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Independiente Medellin vs America de Cali?
On our numbers Independiente Medellin have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 27% and America de Cali 34%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente Medellin vs America de Cali?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente Medellin vs America de Cali?
Our predicted score is Independiente Medellin 1–1 America de Cali, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Independiente Medellin vs America de Cali?
Independiente Medellin vs America de Cali (Primera A) kicks off on Tuesday 31 March 2026 at 00:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
