Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.53 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 53% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAlianza Valledupar to win ✗40% · @2.76
Double chanceEither team to win ✗72% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.72
Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pasto: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Alianza Valledupar welcome Deportivo Pasto to Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau for a Primera A fixture on Wednesday 1 April (22:10 WAT). In the table, Alianza Valledupar are 16th, lower half, on 18 points after 18 matches; Deportivo Pasto are 18th (in the drop zone) with 15. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Alianza Valledupar, last 5: LWDDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Águilas Doradas, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Deportivo Pasto, last 5: LWWLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Atletico Nacional, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Deportivo Pasto, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.0 for Alianza Valledupar.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alianza Valledupar 1.3 xG, Deportivo Pasto 1.0 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alianza Valledupar 40%, draw 28%, Deportivo Pasto 32%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (64%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alianza Valledupar 1–1 Deportivo Pasto. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alianza Valledupar40%fair 2.49 · @2.76
Draw28%fair 3.59 · @2.98
Deportivo Pasto32%fair 3.13 · @2.70
2.32Expected goals
1.31Alianza Valledupar xG
1.00Deportivo Pasto xG
53%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–013%
0–110%
0–010%
2–19%
2–09%
From our goals model: Alianza Valledupar 1.3 – 1.0 Deportivo Pasto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Alianza Valledupar
Deportivo Pasto
Attack vs Primera A average
-19%
-29%
Goals conceded vs average
+22%
+22%
Our expected goals here
1.46
0.92
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alianza Valledupar to win✗
40%
2.49
2.76 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
72%
1.39
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Alianza Valledupar (draw no bet)
56%
1.80
–
Asian handicap
Deportivo Pasto +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
64%
1.55
1.53
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.15
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
1.04
First team to score
Alianza Valledupar to score first✗
51%
1.96
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alianza Valledupar / FT Alianza Valledupar✗
25%
3.94
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.72
–
Recent results
Alianza Valledupar – last 6
LWDDLD
27 Mar
@ Águilas Doradas
0–1
L
19 Mar
vs Jaguares
1–0
W
15 Mar
@ Santa Fe
1–1
D
6 Mar
@ Junior
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Atletico Nacional
0–3
L
17 Feb
vs Cucuta
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Deportivo Pasto – last 6
LWWLWD
30 Mar
vs Atletico Nacional
1–2
L
25 Mar
@ Fortaleza FC
2–1
W
18 Mar
vs Chico
2–0
W
14 Mar
@ Once Caldas
2–4
L
10 Mar
vs America de Cali
2–0
W
21 Feb
@ Deportivo Pereira
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alianza Valledupar and Deportivo Pasto.
What is the prediction for Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pasto?
On our numbers Alianza Valledupar have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Deportivo Pasto 32%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pasto?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our predicted score is Alianza Valledupar 1–1 Deportivo Pasto, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pasto?
Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pasto (Primera A) kicks off on Wednesday 1 April 2026 at 22:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
