Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellin: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Independiente Medellin travel to face Once Caldas on Friday 3 April in the Primera A, with Estadio Palogrande the venue – the ball rolls at 02:30 WAT. In the table, Once Caldas are 8th, upper half, on 27 points after 18 matches; Independiente Medellin are 6th (upper half) with 29. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Once Caldas, last 5: DLDWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Llaneros, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Independiente Medellin, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over America de Cali, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Once Caldas 1.5 xG, Independiente Medellin 1.2 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Once Caldas 44%, draw 26%, Independiente Medellin 30%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.67.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Once Caldas 1–1 Independiente Medellin. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Once Caldas44%fair 2.26 · @2.12
Draw26%fair 3.91 · @3.40
Independiente Medellin30%fair 3.32 · @3.30
2.70Expected goals
1.54Once Caldas xG
1.15Independiente Medellin xG
60%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
2–08%
0–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Once Caldas 1.5 – 1.2 Independiente Medellin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Once Caldas
Independiente Medellin
Attack vs Primera A average
-5%
+16%
Goals conceded vs average
-18%
+6%
Our expected goals here
1.48
1.01
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Once Caldas to win✗
44%
2.26
2.12
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.34
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
1.67
Draw no bet
Once Caldas (draw no bet)
60%
1.68
–
Asian handicap
Independiente Medellin +1 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.12
First team to score
Once Caldas to score first
53%
1.88
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Once Caldas / FT Once Caldas✗
28%
3.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.80
–
Recent results
Once Caldas – last 6
DLDWWW
30 Mar
@ Llaneros
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs Millonarios
1–4
L
19 Mar
@ Bucaramanga
1–1
D
14 Mar
vs Deportivo Pasto
4–2
W
7 Mar
@ Deportivo Cali
2–0
W
28 Feb
vs Chico
3–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Independiente Medellin – last 6
WLWWWD
31 Mar
vs America de Cali
2–1
W
23 Mar
@ Santa Fe
1–2
L
20 Mar
vs Junior
2–0
W
16 Mar
@ Jaguares
2–1
W
13 Mar
vs Juventud
2–1
W
6 Mar
@ Juventud
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Once Caldas and Independiente Medellin.
What is the prediction for Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellin?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellin?
On our numbers Once Caldas have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Independiente Medellin 30%.
How many goals will there be in Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellin?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellin?
Our predicted score is Once Caldas 1–1 Independiente Medellin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellin?
Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellin (Primera A) kicks off on Friday 3 April 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Palogrande.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
