Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Independiente Medellin welcome Atletico Nacional to Estadio Atanasio Girardot for a Primera A fixture on Sunday 12 April (02:20 WAT). In the table, Independiente Medellin are 6th, upper half, on 29 points after 18 matches; Atletico Nacional are 1st (leading the league) with 39.
Current form
Independiente Medellin, last 5: DDWLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Estudiantes L.P., at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Atletico Nacional, last 5: WDWWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Jaguares, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Independiente Medellin 1.3 xG, Atletico Nacional 1.6 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 63%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente Medellin 32%, draw 24%, Atletico Nacional 43%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.65.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente Medellin 1–1 Atletico Nacional. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Independiente Medellin32%fair 3.11 · @2.94
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.45
Atletico Nacional43%fair 2.30 · @2.28
2.85Expected goals
1.30Independiente Medellin xG
1.55Atletico Nacional xG
63%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–29%
0–19%
2–18%
1–07%
0–27%
From our goals model: Independiente Medellin 1.3 – 1.6 Atletico Nacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Independiente Medellin
Atletico Nacional
Attack vs Primera A average
+16%
+48%
Goals conceded vs average
+6%
-19%
Our expected goals here
1.38
1.66
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Nacional to win✓
43%
2.30
2.28
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.59
1.65
Draw no bet
Atletico Nacional (draw no bet)✓
57%
1.74
–
Asian handicap
Independiente Medellin +1 (Asian handicap)
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
84%
1.19
1.12
First team to score
Atletico Nacional to score first
51%
1.95
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.45
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Nacional / FT Atletico Nacional✗
26%
3.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.06
–
Recent results
Independiente Medellin – last 6
DDWLWW
9 Apr
vs Estudiantes L.P.
1–1
D
3 Apr
@ Once Caldas
1–1
D
31 Mar
vs America de Cali
2–1
W
23 Mar
@ Santa Fe
1–2
L
20 Mar
vs Junior
2–0
W
16 Mar
@ Jaguares
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Atletico Nacional – last 6
WDWWLW
7 Apr
vs Jaguares
2–1
W
2 Apr
vs Cucuta
0–0
D
30 Mar
@ Deportivo Pasto
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs Internacional de Bogota
3–0
W
18 Mar
@ Millonarios
0–3
L
14 Mar
vs Llaneros
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente Medellin and Atletico Nacional.
What is the prediction for Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional?
On our numbers Independiente Medellin have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Atletico Nacional 43%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional?
Our predicted score is Independiente Medellin 1–1 Atletico Nacional, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional?
Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 02:20 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
