Value bet: Jaguares to win @ 3.00 – our chance 37% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultJaguares to win ✗37% · @3.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.67
Jaguares vs Deportivo Pasto: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 17 April the Primera A brings Jaguares against Deportivo Pasto at Estadio Jaraguay. Kick-off: 22:00 WAT. In the table, Jaguares are 19th, in the drop zone, on 13 points after 18 matches; Deportivo Pasto are 18th (in the drop zone) with 15. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Jaguares, last 5: LWLDL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Atletico Nacional, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Deportivo Pasto, last 5: WDLWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Deportes Tolima, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Deportivo Pasto, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.7 for Jaguares.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Jaguares 1.3 xG, Deportivo Pasto 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Jaguares 37%, draw 27%, Deportivo Pasto 36%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Jaguares to win @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Jaguares 1–1 Deportivo Pasto. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Jaguares37%fair 2.73 · @3.00
Draw27%fair 3.69 · @3.05
Deportivo Pasto36%fair 2.75 · @2.42
2.52Expected goals
1.35Jaguares xG
1.17Deportivo Pasto xG
53%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
1–27%
From our goals model: Jaguares 1.3 – 1.2 Deportivo Pasto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Jaguares
Deportivo Pasto
Attack vs Primera A average
-16%
-29%
Goals conceded vs average
+42%
+22%
Our expected goals here
1.51
1.07
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Jaguares to win✗
37%
2.73
3.00 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
1.85
Draw no bet
Jaguares (draw no bet)✗
50%
1.99
–
Asian handicap
Deportivo Pasto +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
89%
1.13
1.07
First team to score
Jaguares to score first
49%
2.03
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Jaguares / FT Jaguares✗
24%
4.22
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.67
–
Recent results
Jaguares – last 6
LWLDLL
7 Apr
@ Atletico Nacional
1–2
L
3 Apr
vs Millonarios
1–0
W
29 Mar
@ Deportes Tolima
1–3
L
24 Mar
vs Águilas Doradas
1–1
D
19 Mar
@ Alianza Valledupar
0–1
L
16 Mar
vs Independiente Medellin
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Deportivo Pasto – last 6
WDLWWL
11 Apr
vs Deportes Tolima
1–0
W
1 Apr
@ Alianza Valledupar
0–0
D
30 Mar
vs Atletico Nacional
1–2
L
25 Mar
@ Fortaleza FC
2–1
W
18 Mar
vs Chico
2–0
W
14 Mar
@ Once Caldas
2–4
L
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Jaguares and Deportivo Pasto.
What is the prediction for Jaguares vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Jaguares vs Deportivo Pasto?
On our numbers Jaguares have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Deportivo Pasto 36%.
How many goals will there be in Jaguares vs Deportivo Pasto?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Jaguares vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our predicted score is Jaguares 1–1 Deportivo Pasto, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Jaguares vs Deportivo Pasto?
Jaguares vs Deportivo Pasto (Primera A) kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jaraguay.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
