Alianza Valledupar vs Independiente Medellin: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Alianza Valledupar welcome Independiente Medellin to Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau for a Primera A fixture on Sunday 19 April (22:10 WAT). In the table, Alianza Valledupar are 16th, lower half, on 18 points after 18 matches; Independiente Medellin are 6th (upper half) with 29.
Current form
Alianza Valledupar, last 5: LWDLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Internacional de Bogota, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Independiente Medellin, last 5: LLDDW Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to Flamengo, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alianza Valledupar 1.2 xG, Independiente Medellin 1.4 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alianza Valledupar 31%, draw 26%, Independiente Medellin 42%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.91.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alianza Valledupar 1–1 Independiente Medellin. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alianza Valledupar31%fair 3.19 · @3.20
Draw26%fair 3.79 · @3.15
Independiente Medellin42%fair 2.37 · @2.30
2.57Expected goals
1.17Alianza Valledupar xG
1.40Independiente Medellin xG
52%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–09%
1–29%
0–08%
0–27%
From our goals model: Alianza Valledupar 1.2 – 1.4 Independiente Medellin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Alianza Valledupar
Independiente Medellin
Attack vs Primera A average
-19%
+16%
Goals conceded vs average
+22%
+6%
Our expected goals here
1.27
1.50
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente Medellin to win
42%
2.37
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win
74%
1.36
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
52%
1.92
1.91
Draw no bet
Independiente Medellin (draw no bet)
57%
1.74
–
Asian handicap
Alianza Valledupar +1 (Asian handicap)
74%
1.34
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
70%
1.44
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
55%
1.81
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
76%
1.32
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
89%
1.13
1.06
First team to score
Independiente Medellin to score first
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente Medellin / FT Independiente Medellin
25%
4.06
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
9%
11.40
–
Recent results
Alianza Valledupar – last 6
LWDLWD
13 Apr
@ Internacional de Bogota
1–2
L
6 Apr
@ Deportivo Pereira
3–2
W
1 Apr
vs Deportivo Pasto
0–0
D
27 Mar
@ Águilas Doradas
0–1
L
19 Mar
vs Jaguares
1–0
W
15 Mar
@ Santa Fe
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Independiente Medellin – last 6
LLDDWL
17 Apr
@ Flamengo
1–4
L
12 Apr
vs Atletico Nacional
2–3
L
9 Apr
vs Estudiantes L.P.
1–1
D
3 Apr
@ Once Caldas
1–1
D
31 Mar
vs America de Cali
2–1
W
23 Mar
@ Santa Fe
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alianza Valledupar and Independiente Medellin.
What is the prediction for Alianza Valledupar vs Independiente Medellin?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Alianza Valledupar vs Independiente Medellin?
On our numbers Alianza Valledupar have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Independiente Medellin 42%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Valledupar vs Independiente Medellin?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza Valledupar vs Independiente Medellin?
Our predicted score is Alianza Valledupar 1–1 Independiente Medellin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Alianza Valledupar vs Independiente Medellin?
Alianza Valledupar vs Independiente Medellin (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 22:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
