Deportivo Pasto 37%Draw 27%Santa Fe 36%Expected goals 1.09 – 1.34
78%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Santa Fe to win @ 3.85 – our chance 36% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +39%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultDeportivo Pasto to win ✗37% · @2.06
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 14.33
Deportivo Pasto vs Santa Fe: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:00 WAT, Friday 24 April: Deportivo Pasto v Santa Fe in the Primera A, played at Estadio Departamental Libertad. In the table, Deportivo Pasto are 18th, in the drop zone, on 15 points after 18 matches; Santa Fe are 5th (upper half) with 31. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Deportivo Pasto, last 5: WWDLW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Jaguares, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Santa Fe, last 5: LDDLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Corinthians, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Deportivo Pasto, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.3 for Santa Fe.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Deportivo Pasto 1.1 xG, Santa Fe 1.3 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Deportivo Pasto 37%, draw 27%, Santa Fe 36%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Santa Fe to win @3.85 – the bookmaker implies 26%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Deportivo Pasto 1–1 Santa Fe. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Deportivo Pasto37%fair 2.70 · @2.06
Draw27%fair 3.70 · @3.10
Santa Fe36%fair 2.78 · @3.85
2.43Expected goals
1.09Deportivo Pasto xG
1.34Santa Fe xG
53%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–29%
0–28%
From our goals model: Deportivo Pasto 1.1 – 1.3 Santa Fe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Deportivo Pasto
Santa Fe
Attack vs Primera A average
-29%
+19%
Goals conceded vs average
+22%
-17%
Our expected goals here
0.87
1.54
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Pasto to win✗
37%
2.70
2.06
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Deportivo Pasto (draw no bet)✗
51%
1.97
–
Asian handicap
Deportivo Pasto +1 (Asian handicap)
74%
1.34
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
1.05
First team to score
Santa Fe to score first
50%
1.98
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Santa Fe / FT Santa Fe✗
25%
4.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
7%
14.33
–
Recent results
Deportivo Pasto – last 6
WWDLWW
17 Apr
@ Jaguares
3–2
W
11 Apr
vs Deportes Tolima
1–0
W
1 Apr
@ Alianza Valledupar
0–0
D
30 Mar
vs Atletico Nacional
1–2
L
25 Mar
@ Fortaleza FC
2–1
W
18 Mar
vs Chico
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Santa Fe – last 6
LDDLWW
16 Apr
@ Corinthians
0–2
L
10 Apr
vs Penarol
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Deportes Tolima
2–2
D
2 Apr
vs Llaneros
0–1
L
28 Mar
@ Bucaramanga
2–1
W
23 Mar
vs Independiente Medellin
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportivo Pasto and Santa Fe.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Pasto vs Santa Fe?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Deportivo Pasto vs Santa Fe?
On our numbers Deportivo Pasto have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Santa Fe 36%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Pasto vs Santa Fe?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Pasto vs Santa Fe?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Pasto 1–1 Santa Fe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Pasto vs Santa Fe?
Deportivo Pasto vs Santa Fe (Primera A) kicks off on Friday 24 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Departamental Libertad.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
