Value bet: Draw @ 3.50 – our chance 34% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSamtredia to win ✗39% · @2.25
Double chanceSamtredia or draw ✗73% · fair 1.37
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · fair 1.92
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.66
Aragvi Dusheti vs Samtredia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Aragvi Dusheti welcome Samtredia to Tsentraluri Stadioni for a Erovnuli Liga 2 fixture on Saturday 7 March (12:00 WAT). In the table, Aragvi Dusheti are 6th, lower half, on 43 points after 32 matches; Samtredia are 4th (among the top four) with 46. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Aragvi Dusheti 1.2 xG, Samtredia 1.5 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 48%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Aragvi Dusheti 27%, draw 34%, Samtredia 39%.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 34%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (51%, odds 1.80). Most likely score in line with that pick: Aragvi Dusheti 1–1 Samtredia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Aragvi Dusheti27%fair 3.69 · @2.62
Draw34%fair 2.93 · @3.50
Samtredia39%fair 2.58 · @2.25
2.69Expected goals
1.16Aragvi Dusheti xG
1.53Samtredia xG
48%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
0–28%
1–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Aragvi Dusheti 1.2 – 1.5 Samtredia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Samtredia to win✗
39%
2.58
2.25
Double chance
Samtredia or draw✗
73%
1.37
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.92
–
Draw no bet
Samtredia (draw no bet)✗
59%
1.70
–
Asian handicap
Aragvi Dusheti +1 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
Samtredia to score first✓
53%
1.89
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Samtredia / FT Samtredia✗
27%
3.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.66
–
Recent results
Aragvi Dusheti
No recent results on record.
Samtredia
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aragvi Dusheti and Samtredia.
What is the prediction for Aragvi Dusheti vs Samtredia?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Aragvi Dusheti vs Samtredia?
On our numbers Aragvi Dusheti have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 34% and Samtredia 39%.
How many goals will there be in Aragvi Dusheti vs Samtredia?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aragvi Dusheti vs Samtredia?
Our predicted score is Aragvi Dusheti 1–1 Samtredia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Aragvi Dusheti vs Samtredia?
Aragvi Dusheti vs Samtredia (Erovnuli Liga 2) kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Tsentraluri Stadioni.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
