Value bet: Samtredia to win @ 2.88 – our chance 39% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSamtredia to win ✓39% · @2.88
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · fair 1.32
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · fair 1.92
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.13
Aragvi Dusheti vs Samtredia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Samtredia travel to face Aragvi Dusheti on Saturday 8 August in the Erovnuli Liga 2, with Tsentraluri Stadioni the venue – the ball rolls at 18:00 WAT. In the table, Aragvi Dusheti are 6th, lower half, on 43 points after 32 matches; Samtredia are 4th (among the top four) with 46. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Aragvi Dusheti, last 5: WDWLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Guria, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Samtredia, last 5: WLLDL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Shturmi, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Aragvi Dusheti, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.7 for Samtredia.
Head to head
When they last met (6 May 2026) it ended Samtredia 2–0 Aragvi Dusheti. The last 2 head-to-heads: Aragvi Dusheti 1 win, Samtredia 1, draws 0. Those games averaged 2.5 goals and saw GG land 1 time.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Aragvi Dusheti 1.2 xG, Samtredia 1.5 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 52%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Aragvi Dusheti 37%, draw 24%, Samtredia 39%.
Price worth noting: Samtredia to win @2.88 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (51%, odds 1.85). Most likely score in line with that pick: Aragvi Dusheti 1–2 Samtredia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Aragvi Dusheti37%fair 2.74 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.40
Samtredia39%fair 2.56 · @2.88
2.74Expected goals
1.24Aragvi Dusheti xG
1.50Samtredia xG
52%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
2–17%
0–27%
From our goals model: Aragvi Dusheti 1.2 – 1.5 Samtredia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Aragvi Dusheti vs Samtredia?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Aragvi Dusheti vs Samtredia?
On our numbers Aragvi Dusheti have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Samtredia 39%.
How many goals will there be in Aragvi Dusheti vs Samtredia?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aragvi Dusheti vs Samtredia?
Our predicted score is Aragvi Dusheti 1–2 Samtredia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Aragvi Dusheti vs Samtredia?
Aragvi Dusheti vs Samtredia (Erovnuli Liga 2) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Tsentraluri Stadioni.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
