Value bet: Marsaxlokk to win @ 3.45 – our chance 31% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFloriana to win ✗43% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.34
Floriana vs Marsaxlokk: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Wednesday 18 February the Premier League brings Floriana against Marsaxlokk at Victor Tedesco Stadium. Kick-off: 18:30 WAT. In the table, Floriana are 6th on 16 points after 12 matches; Marsaxlokk are 2nd with 21.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Floriana 1.5 xG, Marsaxlokk 1.3 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Floriana 43%, draw 25%, Marsaxlokk 31%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Marsaxlokk to win @3.45 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 31%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (71%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Floriana 1–1 Marsaxlokk. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Floriana43%fair 2.30 · @2.05
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.10
Marsaxlokk31%fair 3.21 · @3.45
2.73Expected goals
1.46Floriana xG
1.27Marsaxlokk xG
55%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Floriana 1.5 – 1.3 Marsaxlokk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Floriana to win✗
43%
2.30
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.34
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
1.85
Draw no bet
Floriana (draw no bet)
58%
1.72
–
Asian handicap
Marsaxlokk +1 (Asian handicap)✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
Floriana to score first✗
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Floriana / FT Floriana✗
24%
4.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.34
–
Recent results
Floriana – last 1
W
15 Feb
vs Tarxien Rainbows
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Marsaxlokk – last 1
W
15 Feb
vs Hibernians
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Floriana and Marsaxlokk.
What is the prediction for Floriana vs Marsaxlokk?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Floriana vs Marsaxlokk?
On our numbers Floriana have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Marsaxlokk 31%.
How many goals will there be in Floriana vs Marsaxlokk?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Floriana vs Marsaxlokk?
Our predicted score is Floriana 1–1 Marsaxlokk, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Floriana vs Marsaxlokk?
Floriana vs Marsaxlokk (Premier League) kicks off on Wednesday 18 February 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Victor Tedesco Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Tarxien Rainbows1