Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 53% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCD Marathon to win ✗62% · @1.30
Double chanceCD Marathon or draw ✗84% · @1.02
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.10
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.17
CD Marathon vs Génesis: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
CD Marathon welcome Génesis to Estadio Yankel Rosenthal for a Liga Nacional fixture on Friday 27 February (02:30 WAT). In the table, CD Marathon are 3rd, among the top four, on 28 points after 14 matches; Génesis are 8th (lower half) with 15. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
CD Marathon, last 3: DDD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Olancho, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give CD Marathon 1.8 xG, Génesis 0.9 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – CD Marathon 62%, draw 22%, Génesis 16%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: CD Marathon 2–0 Génesis. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
CD Marathon62%fair 1.60 · @1.30
Draw22%fair 4.63 · @4.50
Génesis16%fair 6.21 · @8.40
2.74Expected goals
1.84CD Marathon xG
0.90Génesis xG
53%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
0–06%
From our goals model: CD Marathon 1.8 – 0.9 Génesis expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
CD Marathon to win✗
62%
1.60
1.30
Double chance
CD Marathon or draw✗
84%
1.19
1.02
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
CD Marathon (draw no bet)✗
79%
1.26
–
Asian handicap
Génesis +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
First team to score
CD Marathon to score first✗
63%
1.59
–
Half-time result
CD Marathon ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT CD Marathon / FT CD Marathon✗
37%
2.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.17
–
Recent results
CD Marathon – last 3
DDD
22 Feb
@ Olancho
1–1
D
16 Feb
@ CD Motagua
1–1
D
13 Feb
vs Platense FC
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Génesis – last 1
D
15 Feb
vs Platense FC
2–2
D
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between CD Marathon and Génesis.
What is the prediction for CD Marathon vs Génesis?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win CD Marathon vs Génesis?
On our numbers CD Marathon have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Génesis 16%.
How many goals will there be in CD Marathon vs Génesis?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for CD Marathon vs Génesis?
Our predicted score is CD Marathon 2–0 Génesis, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is CD Marathon vs Génesis?
CD Marathon vs Génesis (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Friday 27 February 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Yankel Rosenthal.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
