Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 51% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultEnvigado to win ✓57% · @1.55
Double chanceEnvigado or draw ✓82% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.15
Envigado vs Popayan: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Popayan travel to face Envigado on Thursday 5 March in the Primera B, with Estadio Polideportivo Sur the venue – the ball rolls at 21:00 WAT. In the table, Envigado are 1st, leading the league, on 7 points after 4 matches; Popayan are 2nd (among the top four) with 7. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Popayan, last 3: LLD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Barranquilla, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Envigado 1.5 xG, Popayan 0.8 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Envigado 57%, draw 25%, Popayan 18%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.15.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Envigado 1–0 Popayan. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Envigado57%fair 1.74 · @1.55
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.40
Popayan18%fair 5.57 · @6.20
2.28Expected goals
1.52Envigado xG
0.76Popayan xG
51%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–012%
1–112%
0–010%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Envigado 1.5 – 0.8 Popayan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Envigado
Popayan
Attack vs Primera B average
+14%
+8%
Goals conceded vs average
-21%
+16%
Our expected goals here
1.52
0.83
Our own ratings from every Primera B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Envigado to win✓
57%
1.74
1.55
Double chance
Envigado or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.98
2.15 ▲
Draw no bet
Envigado (draw no bet)✓
76%
1.31
–
Asian handicap
Popayan +1 (Asian handicap)
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
66%
1.51
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Envigado to score first✓
60%
1.67
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Envigado / FT Envigado✓
33%
2.99
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.15
–
Recent results
Envigado – last 1
L
24 Feb
vs Quindio
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Popayan – last 3
LLD
26 Feb
vs Barranquilla
0–2
L
22 Feb
@ Bogota FC
1–2
L
18 Feb
vs Orsomarso
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Envigado and Popayan.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Envigado vs Popayan?
On our numbers Envigado have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Popayan 18%.
How many goals will there be in Envigado vs Popayan?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Envigado vs Popayan?
Our predicted score is Envigado 1–0 Popayan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Envigado vs Popayan?
Envigado vs Popayan (Primera B) kicks off on Thursday 5 March 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Polideportivo Sur.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
