UTC Cajamarca 27%Draw 26%Alianza Lima 46%Expected goals 1.04 – 1.45
75%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.25
8/10Rating
1.25Odds
Picks by market
ResultAlianza Lima to win46% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win74% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score58% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 11.03
UTC Cajamarca vs Alianza Lima: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Alianza Lima travel to face UTC Cajamarca on Saturday 28 February in the Primera División – the ball rolls at 19:15 WAT. In the table, UTC Cajamarca are 18th, in the drop zone, on 6 points after 16 matches; Alianza Lima are 6th (upper half) with 29. There are 23 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give UTC Cajamarca 1.0 xG, Alianza Lima 1.4 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – UTC Cajamarca 27%, draw 26%, Alianza Lima 46%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: UTC Cajamarca 1–1 Alianza Lima. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
UTC Cajamarca27%fair 3.65 · @3.35
Draw26%fair 3.80 · @3.10
Alianza Lima46%fair 2.16 · @2.05
2.49Expected goals
1.04UTC Cajamarca xG
1.45Alianza Lima xG
58%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–29%
0–29%
1–09%
0–08%
From our goals model: UTC Cajamarca 1.0 – 1.4 Alianza Lima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
UTC Cajamarca
Alianza Lima
Attack vs Primera División average
-12%
+7%
Goals conceded vs average
+25%
-31%
Our expected goals here
1.06
1.51
Our own ratings from every Primera División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alianza Lima to win
46%
2.16
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win
74%
1.36
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
58%
1.71
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Alianza Lima (draw no bet)
63%
1.59
–
Asian handicap
UTC Cajamarca +1 (Asian handicap)
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
70%
1.43
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
55%
1.83
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Alianza Lima to score first
53%
1.87
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alianza Lima / FT Alianza Lima
28%
3.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
9%
11.03
–
Recent results
UTC Cajamarca – last 2
DW
22 Feb
@ ADT
2–2
D
13 Feb
vs Cusco
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Alianza Lima – last 2
WD
21 Feb
vs Sport Boys
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Alianza Atletico
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between UTC Cajamarca and Alianza Lima.
What is the prediction for UTC Cajamarca vs Alianza Lima?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win UTC Cajamarca vs Alianza Lima?
On our numbers UTC Cajamarca have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Alianza Lima 46%.
How many goals will there be in UTC Cajamarca vs Alianza Lima?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UTC Cajamarca vs Alianza Lima?
Our predicted score is UTC Cajamarca 1–1 Alianza Lima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is UTC Cajamarca vs Alianza Lima?
UTC Cajamarca vs Alianza Lima (Primera División) kicks off on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 19:15 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
