Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 53% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultAlianza Atletico to win48% · @2.10
Double chanceAlianza Atletico or draw75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score53% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.12
Alianza Atletico vs Atletico Grau: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
21:00 WAT, Friday 3 April: Alianza Atletico v Atletico Grau in the Primera División, played at Estadio Campeones del 36. In the table, Alianza Atletico are 7th, upper half, on 28 points after 16 matches; Atletico Grau are 11th (lower half) with 21.
Current form
Alianza Atletico, last 4: WDDD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Deportivo Garcilaso, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Atletico Grau, last 5: DWLLL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with FBC Melgar, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.6 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Alianza Atletico, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.8 for Atletico Grau.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alianza Atletico 1.4 xG, Atletico Grau 0.9 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alianza Atletico 48%, draw 26%, Atletico Grau 25%.
Lower-risk option: Alianza Atletico or draw (75%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.15.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Alianza Atletico or draw (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alianza Atletico 1–0 Atletico Grau. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alianza Atletico48%fair 2.07 · @2.10
Draw26%fair 3.77 · @2.88
Atletico Grau25%fair 3.95 · @3.75
2.36Expected goals
1.44Alianza Atletico xG
0.92Atletico Grau xG
53%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–113%
2–010%
0–09%
2–19%
0–19%
From our goals model: Alianza Atletico 1.4 – 0.9 Atletico Grau expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Alianza Atletico
Atletico Grau
Attack vs Primera División average
+10%
-16%
Goals conceded vs average
+20%
-3%
Our expected goals here
1.87
1.14
Our own ratings from every Primera División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alianza Atletico to win
48%
2.07
2.10
Double chance
Alianza Atletico or draw
75%
1.34
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
53%
1.90
2.15 ▲
Draw no bet
Alianza Atletico (draw no bet)
66%
1.52
–
Asian handicap
Atletico Grau +1 (Asian handicap)
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Alianza Atletico to score first
55%
1.81
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alianza Atletico / FT Alianza Atletico
29%
3.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
11.12
–
Recent results
Alianza Atletico – last 4
WDDD
4 Mar
vs Deportivo Garcilaso
2–0
W
27 Feb
vs ADT
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ Cienciano
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Alianza Lima
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
25%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Atletico Grau – last 5
DWLLL
15 Mar
@ FBC Melgar
0–0
D
6 Mar
vs FC Cajamarca
1–0
W
1 Mar
@ Comerciantes Unidos
1–3
L
22 Feb
vs Juan Pablo II College
1–2
L
14 Feb
@ Sport Boys
0–1
L
0.6Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alianza Atletico and Atletico Grau.
What is the prediction for Alianza Atletico vs Atletico Grau?
Our pick is Alianza Atletico or draw with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Alianza Atletico vs Atletico Grau?
On our numbers Alianza Atletico have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Atletico Grau 25%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Atletico vs Atletico Grau?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza Atletico vs Atletico Grau?
Our predicted score is Alianza Atletico 1–0 Atletico Grau, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Alianza Atletico vs Atletico Grau?
Alianza Atletico vs Atletico Grau (Primera División) kicks off on Friday 3 April 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Campeones del 36.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
