FBC Melgar vs Cusco: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Cusco travel to face FBC Melgar on Saturday 4 April in the Primera División, with Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi the venue – the ball rolls at 21:30 WAT. In the table, FBC Melgar are 5th, upper half, on 29 points after 16 matches; Cusco are 10th (lower half) with 24.
Current form
FBC Melgar, last 5: DDLLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with ADT, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Cusco, last 4: LWWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Cienciano, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Cusco, collecting 1.5 points per game to 1.0 for FBC Melgar.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give FBC Melgar 1.9 xG, Cusco 0.9 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – FBC Melgar 61%, draw 22%, Cusco 17%.
Lower-risk option: FBC Melgar or draw (83%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.77.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: FBC Melgar 2–0 Cusco. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
FBC Melgar61%fair 1.64 · @1.73
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.70
Cusco17%fair 5.93 · @4.55
2.73Expected goals
1.87FBC Melgar xG
0.86Cusco xG
58%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: FBC Melgar 1.9 – 0.9 Cusco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
FBC Melgar
Cusco
Attack vs Primera División average
+13%
-4%
Goals conceded vs average
-16%
+2%
Our expected goals here
2.00
0.90
Our own ratings from every Primera División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FBC Melgar to win
61%
1.64
1.73 ▲
Double chance
FBC Melgar or draw
83%
1.20
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
58%
1.72
1.77
Draw no bet
FBC Melgar (draw no bet)
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
FBC Melgar -0.5 (Asian handicap)
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
75%
1.34
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
51%
1.95
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
71%
1.41
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
85%
1.17
1.11
First team to score
FBC Melgar to score first
64%
1.56
–
Half-time result
FBC Melgar ahead at half-time
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FBC Melgar / FT FBC Melgar
39%
2.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.20
–
Recent results
FBC Melgar – last 5
DDLLW
20 Mar
@ ADT
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs Atletico Grau
0–0
D
10 Mar
@ Alianza Lima
1–3
L
27 Feb
vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1–2
L
16 Feb
vs UCV Moquegua
4–0
W
1.4Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Cusco – last 4
LWWL
16 Mar
vs Cienciano
1–2
L
8 Mar
vs Deportivo Garcilaso
1–0
W
23 Feb
vs Comerciantes Unidos
3–1
W
13 Feb
@ UTC Cajamarca
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FBC Melgar and Cusco.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win FBC Melgar vs Cusco?
On our numbers FBC Melgar have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Cusco 17%.
How many goals will there be in FBC Melgar vs Cusco?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FBC Melgar vs Cusco?
Our predicted score is FBC Melgar 2–0 Cusco, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is FBC Melgar vs Cusco?
FBC Melgar vs Cusco (Primera División) kicks off on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
