ADT 31%Draw 27%Alianza Lima 42%Expected goals 0.98 – 1.27
79%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultAlianza Lima to win ✓42% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓13% · fair 7.49
ADT vs Alianza Lima: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
ADT welcome Alianza Lima to Estadio Union Tarma for a Primera División fixture on Tuesday 14 April (21:15 WAT). In the table, ADT are 16th, in the drop zone, on 12 points after 16 matches; Alianza Lima are 6th (upper half) with 29. There are 17 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
ADT, last 5: LDLDD Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Cienciano, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Alianza Lima, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Universitario, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Alianza Lima, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.6 for ADT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give ADT 1.0 xG, Alianza Lima 1.3 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 49%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – ADT 31%, draw 27%, Alianza Lima 42%.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.83.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: ADT 0–1 Alianza Lima. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
ADT31%fair 3.27 · @3.00
Draw27%fair 3.65 · @3.20
Alianza Lima42%fair 2.38 · @2.38
2.25Expected goals
0.98ADT xG
1.27Alianza Lima xG
49%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
1–113%
0–011%
1–010%
0–28%
1–28%
From our goals model: ADT 1.0 – 1.3 Alianza Lima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
ADT
Alianza Lima
Attack vs Primera División average
-23%
+7%
Goals conceded vs average
+7%
-31%
Our expected goals here
0.93
1.29
Our own ratings from every Primera División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alianza Lima to win✓
42%
2.38
2.38
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.38
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
1.83
Draw no bet
Alianza Lima (draw no bet)✓
58%
1.73
–
Asian handicap
ADT +1 (Asian handicap)
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.50
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.71
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
1.07
First team to score
Alianza Lima to score first✓
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alianza Lima / FT Alianza Lima✓
25%
4.05
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
13%
7.49
–
Recent results
ADT – last 5
LDLDD
4 Apr
@ Cienciano
2–3
L
20 Mar
vs FBC Melgar
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Juan Pablo II College
2–3
L
27 Feb
@ Alianza Atletico
0–0
D
22 Feb
vs UTC Cajamarca
2–2
D
1.4Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
80%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Alianza Lima – last 6
LWDWWD
5 Apr
@ Universitario
0–1
L
22 Mar
vs Juan Pablo II College
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Deportivo Garcilaso
1–1
D
10 Mar
vs FBC Melgar
3–1
W
21 Feb
vs Sport Boys
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Alianza Atletico
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between ADT and Alianza Lima.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win ADT vs Alianza Lima?
On our numbers ADT have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Alianza Lima 42%.
How many goals will there be in ADT vs Alianza Lima?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for ADT vs Alianza Lima?
Our predicted score is ADT 0–1 Alianza Lima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is ADT vs Alianza Lima?
ADT vs Alianza Lima (Primera División) kicks off on Tuesday 14 April 2026 at 21:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Union Tarma.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
