Comerciantes Unidos 55%Draw 24%Alianza Atletico 21%Expected goals 1.77 – 1.02
79%
Betarazi pick
Comerciantes Unidos or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultComerciantes Unidos to win ✓55% · @1.90
Double chanceComerciantes Unidos or draw ✓79% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.19
Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Atletico: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Comerciantes Unidos welcome Alianza Atletico to Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra for a Primera División fixture on Wednesday 22 April (19:00 WAT). In the table, Comerciantes Unidos are 13th, lower half, on 16 points after 16 matches; Alianza Atletico are 7th (upper half) with 28. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Comerciantes Unidos, last 5: DWWLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Sport Huancayo, away. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Alianza Atletico, last 5: LDWDD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to America de Cali, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Comerciantes Unidos 1.8 xG, Alianza Atletico 1.0 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Comerciantes Unidos 55%, draw 24%, Alianza Atletico 21%.
Lower-risk option: Comerciantes Unidos or draw (79%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Comerciantes Unidos or draw (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Comerciantes Unidos 1–1 Alianza Atletico. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Comerciantes Unidos55%fair 1.83 · @1.90
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.25
Alianza Atletico21%fair 4.76 · @4.30
2.79Expected goals
1.77Comerciantes Unidos xG
1.02Alianza Atletico xG
56%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–011%
2–110%
2–010%
0–16%
0–06%
From our goals model: Comerciantes Unidos 1.8 – 1.0 Alianza Atletico expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Comerciantes Unidos
Alianza Atletico
Attack vs Primera División average
+2%
+10%
Goals conceded vs average
+2%
+20%
Our expected goals here
2.15
1.26
Our own ratings from every Primera División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Comerciantes Unidos to win✓
55%
1.83
1.90
Double chance
Comerciantes Unidos or draw✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Comerciantes Unidos (draw no bet)✓
72%
1.38
–
Asian handicap
Alianza Atletico +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.40
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.06
First team to score
Comerciantes Unidos to score first✓
59%
1.68
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Comerciantes Unidos / FT Comerciantes Unidos✗
34%
2.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.19
–
Recent results
Comerciantes Unidos – last 5
DWWLD
5 Apr
@ Sport Huancayo
1–1
D
13 Mar
@ FC Cajamarca
4–3
W
1 Mar
vs Atletico Grau
3–1
W
23 Feb
@ Cusco
1–3
L
15 Feb
vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
100%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Alianza Atletico – last 6
LDWDDD
16 Apr
@ America de Cali
1–2
L
8 Apr
vs Tigre
1–1
D
4 Mar
vs Deportivo Garcilaso
2–0
W
27 Feb
vs ADT
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ Cienciano
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Alianza Lima
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Comerciantes Unidos and Alianza Atletico.
What is the prediction for Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Atletico?
Our pick is Comerciantes Unidos or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Atletico?
On our numbers Comerciantes Unidos have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Alianza Atletico 21%.
How many goals will there be in Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Atletico?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Atletico?
Our predicted score is Comerciantes Unidos 1–1 Alianza Atletico, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Atletico?
Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Atletico (Primera División) kicks off on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
