Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 55% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultUniversitario to win ✓65% · @1.30
Double chanceUniversitario or draw ✓85% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @2.25
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.10
Universitario vs Deportivo Garcilaso: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Deportivo Garcilaso travel to face Universitario on Thursday 23 April in the Primera División, with Estadio Monumental the venue – the ball rolls at 02:30 WAT. In the table, Universitario are 3rd, among the top four, on 32 points after 16 matches; Deportivo Garcilaso are 4th (among the top four) with 29. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Universitario, last 5: LLDWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to FBC Melgar, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Deportivo Garcilaso, last 5: LDLLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Sport Huancayo, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 4 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Universitario, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.2 for Deportivo Garcilaso.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Universitario 1.9 xG, Deportivo Garcilaso 0.9 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 55%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Universitario 65%, draw 20%, Deportivo Garcilaso 15%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 2.25.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Universitario 1–1 Deportivo Garcilaso. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Universitario65%fair 1.54 · @1.30
Draw20%fair 5.01 · @4.65
Deportivo Garcilaso15%fair 6.66 · @11.50
2.81Expected goals
1.87Universitario xG
0.94Deportivo Garcilaso xG
55%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–011%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: Universitario 1.9 – 0.9 Deportivo Garcilaso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Universitario
Deportivo Garcilaso
Attack vs Primera División average
+36%
+16%
Goals conceded vs average
+2%
-15%
Our expected goals here
2.02
1.33
Our own ratings from every Primera División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Universitario to win✓
65%
1.54
1.30
Double chance
Universitario or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.80
2.25 ▲
Draw no bet
Universitario (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Deportivo Garcilaso +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.44
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
84%
1.19
1.12
First team to score
Universitario to score first✓
63%
1.60
–
Half-time result
Universitario ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Universitario / FT Universitario✓
37%
2.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.10
–
Recent results
Universitario – last 6
LLDWWW
19 Apr
@ FBC Melgar
1–2
L
15 Apr
vs Coquimbo Unido
0–2
L
8 Apr
@ Deportes Tolima
0–0
D
5 Apr
vs Alianza Lima
1–0
W
15 Mar
vs UTC Cajamarca
2–0
W
2 Mar
vs FC Cajamarca
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Deportivo Garcilaso – last 6
LDLLLL
18 Apr
@ Sport Huancayo
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Alianza Lima
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Cusco
0–1
L
4 Mar
@ Alianza Atletico
0–2
L
28 Feb
vs Cienciano
2–3
L
23 Feb
@ UCV Moquegua
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Universitario and Deportivo Garcilaso.
What is the prediction for Universitario vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Universitario vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
On our numbers Universitario have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Deportivo Garcilaso 15%.
How many goals will there be in Universitario vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Universitario vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Our predicted score is Universitario 1–1 Deportivo Garcilaso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Universitario vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Universitario vs Deportivo Garcilaso (Primera División) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Monumental.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
