Atletico Grau 21%Draw 28%Alianza Lima 51%Expected goals 0.89 – 1.31
64%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.48
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
Picks by market
ResultAlianza Lima to win51% · @1.80
Double chanceAlianza Lima or draw79% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score51% · @1.60
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–114% · fair 6.90
Atletico Grau vs Alianza Lima: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
21:30 WAT, Sunday 26 April: Atletico Grau v Alianza Lima in the Primera División, played at Estadio Campeones del 36. In the table, Atletico Grau are 11th, lower half, on 21 points after 16 matches; Alianza Lima are 6th (upper half) with 29.
Current form
Atletico Grau, last 5: WLDWL Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Sporting Cristal, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Alianza Lima, last 5: WWLWD Their latest outing: 8–0 win over Cusco, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.5 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Alianza Lima, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.2 for Atletico Grau.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico Grau 0.9 xG, Alianza Lima 1.3 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 62%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico Grau 21%, draw 28%, Alianza Lima 51%.
Lower-risk option: Alianza Lima or draw (79%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.60.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (64%, odds 1.48). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico Grau 1–1 Alianza Lima. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico Grau21%fair 4.66 · @4.75
Draw28%fair 3.57 · @3.30
Alianza Lima51%fair 1.98 · @1.80
2.20Expected goals
0.89Atletico Grau xG
1.31Alianza Lima xG
49%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–113%
0–011%
1–010%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Atletico Grau 0.9 – 1.3 Alianza Lima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Atletico Grau
Alianza Lima
Attack vs Primera División average
-16%
+7%
Goals conceded vs average
-3%
-31%
Our expected goals here
1.02
1.17
Our own ratings from every Primera División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alianza Lima to win
51%
1.98
1.80
Double chance
Alianza Lima or draw
79%
1.27
1.18
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
51%
1.96
1.60
Draw no bet
Alianza Lima (draw no bet)
70%
1.42
–
Asian handicap
Atletico Grau +1 (Asian handicap)
72%
1.40
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
64%
1.56
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
62%
1.61
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
81%
1.23
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
91%
1.09
1.05
First team to score
Alianza Lima to score first
53%
1.89
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alianza Lima / FT Alianza Lima
27%
3.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
14%
6.90
–
Recent results
Atletico Grau – last 6
WLDWLL
22 Apr
vs Sporting Cristal
4–1
W
17 Apr
@ Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0–2
L
15 Mar
@ FBC Melgar
0–0
D
6 Mar
vs FC Cajamarca
1–0
W
1 Mar
@ Comerciantes Unidos
1–3
L
22 Feb
vs Juan Pablo II College
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Alianza Lima – last 6
WWLWDW
19 Apr
vs Cusco
8–0
W
14 Apr
@ ADT
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Universitario
0–1
L
22 Mar
vs Juan Pablo II College
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Deportivo Garcilaso
1–1
D
10 Mar
vs FBC Melgar
3–1
W
2.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Grau and Alianza Lima.
What is the prediction for Atletico Grau vs Alianza Lima?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Atletico Grau vs Alianza Lima?
On our numbers Atletico Grau have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Alianza Lima 51%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Grau vs Alianza Lima?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Grau vs Alianza Lima?
Our predicted score is Atletico Grau 1–1 Alianza Lima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Atletico Grau vs Alianza Lima?
Atletico Grau vs Alianza Lima (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Campeones del 36.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
