Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.30 – our chance 52% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultUniversitario to win ✗69% · @1.31
Double chanceUniversitario or draw ✗87% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.30
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.20
Universitario vs Alianza Atletico: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 27 April the Primera División brings Universitario against Alianza Atletico at Estadio Monumental. Kick-off: 00:00 WAT. In the table, Universitario are 3rd, among the top four, on 32 points after 16 matches; Alianza Atletico are 7th (upper half) with 28.
Current form
Universitario, last 5: WLLDW Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Deportivo Garcilaso, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Alianza Atletico, last 5: LLDWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Comerciantes Unidos, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Universitario, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.0 for Alianza Atletico.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Universitario 2.2 xG, Alianza Atletico 0.9 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 54% and GG at 52%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Universitario 69%, draw 18%, Alianza Atletico 13%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.30.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.30 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Universitario 2–0 Alianza Atletico. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Universitario69%fair 1.45 · @1.31
Draw18%fair 5.41 · @4.55
Alianza Atletico13%fair 7.82 · @11.50
3.07Expected goals
2.18Universitario xG
0.88Alianza Atletico xG
52%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Universitario 2.2 – 0.9 Alianza Atletico expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Universitario
Alianza Atletico
Attack vs Primera División average
+36%
+10%
Goals conceded vs average
+2%
+20%
Our expected goals here
2.85
1.27
Our own ratings from every Primera División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Universitario to win✗
69%
1.45
1.31
Double chance
Universitario or draw✗
87%
1.15
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
2.30 ▲
Draw no bet
Universitario (draw no bet)✗
84%
1.19
–
Asian handicap
Universitario -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.91
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.11
First team to score
Universitario to score first
68%
1.47
–
Half-time result
Universitario ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Universitario / FT Universitario✗
44%
2.28
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.20
–
Recent results
Universitario – last 6
WLLDWW
23 Apr
vs Deportivo Garcilaso
4–1
W
19 Apr
@ FBC Melgar
1–2
L
15 Apr
vs Coquimbo Unido
0–2
L
8 Apr
@ Deportes Tolima
0–0
D
5 Apr
vs Alianza Lima
1–0
W
15 Mar
vs UTC Cajamarca
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Alianza Atletico – last 6
LLDWDD
22 Apr
@ Comerciantes Unidos
0–1
L
16 Apr
@ America de Cali
1–2
L
8 Apr
vs Tigre
1–1
D
4 Mar
vs Deportivo Garcilaso
2–0
W
27 Feb
vs ADT
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ Cienciano
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Universitario and Alianza Atletico.
What is the prediction for Universitario vs Alianza Atletico?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Universitario vs Alianza Atletico?
On our numbers Universitario have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Alianza Atletico 13%.
How many goals will there be in Universitario vs Alianza Atletico?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Universitario vs Alianza Atletico?
Our predicted score is Universitario 2–0 Alianza Atletico, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Universitario vs Alianza Atletico?
Universitario vs Alianza Atletico (Primera División) kicks off on Monday 27 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Monumental.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
